Strike on North Korea

[mapuc]

Can we expect something soon ?

This is what I have read in a Swedish article (aftonbladet.se)

"
Donald Trump suddenly called for a press conference on Thursday evening.
The journalists gathered in a room where the president appeared with the United States Supreme Military.
- Do you know what this represents? Trump asked the reporters and continued after a little break:
"Maybe it's calm before the storm," he said.

On Thursday evening, President Donald Trump invited the United States Supreme Military for dinner in Washington. Generals and amirals with their respective had arrived at the White House when the president suddenly called for a press conference.
The journalists were shown in the White House's large dining room.

Trump posed with the military in front of the cameras. Then he gestured against the reporters.
- Do you know what this represents? Perhaps it's calm before the storm. It could be calm, calm before the storm, he said.
A reporter in the room responded quickly:
- What storm? IS? North Korea? Iran?
"You will see," replied Trump.
The president did not further develop exactly what he meant by "the calm before the storm". Instead, he fought to pour praise on the US military.
"We have the world's best military in this room," he said.

Earlier in the evening, the president met with his closest colleagues and discussed military issues. According to the news agency AP, Trump said that the meeting should have made great progress.
The meeting should have been about, among other things, IS and North Korea.
According to AP, Trump then commented on North Korea and Kim Jong-Un.
"We can not allow this dictatorship to threaten our country or our allies.
He also promised that "we must do what we can to prevent something happening and we will act if necessary, believe me," he said.
"

Markus

[Oberon]

Unpredictability is the best solution to a situation with high tension.

[Buddahaid]

Don't worry it's all under control....

[Onkel Neal]

If it happens, I hope South Korea doesn't take the hit.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

If it happens, I hope South Korea doesn't take the hit.

I hope so too, but unfortunately the odds are not very favourable. Likewise with Japan. There's just too many US bases and staging points in both nations, so even if the US goes over the ROKs objections and launches strikes from long range bombers and naval assets, I doubt that the DPRK would leave airfields in South Korea alone with the knowledge that they could be used against them, likewise with the missiles and command being prime targets it's also quite likely that each missile battery has standing orders and targets so that they can operate independently of higher command if needed.

I think if any scenario involving an attack on North Korea, South Korea gets hit the worst in return, then Japan, then Guam, Hawaii and the mainland US in that order. Although in regards to Hawaii and the mainland US it depends on whether Kim Jong-un is going to go all in or try to stop it in return for sparing the US mainland from the Hwasong-14s. Given that he knows that the US and ROK OPLANs call for decapitation strikes though, he might just go all in, since holding back the ICBMs might mean that they never get used.

[Catfish]

Strange that in those so-called enlightened and modern times, there can be lunatics as state leaders abusing their citizens, and the rest of the world does not interfere or care until an international safety valve goes off. North Korea is one problem, China will be the problem.

As long as there is nationalistic pride, propaganda, hegemony and people who do not learn or are just plain dumb, there will always be wars.
It is so easy to brainwash people, or instantly raise them with a patriot complex that beats all humanity or better knowledge.
I guess humans do not deserve to develop further, and it will be a good thing when we finally have killed all of us. Only downside is the rest of planetary life will also suffer from that

[Delgard]

I noticed that the President met over dinner with his military and security advisors the other night. I took it that some decisions were made. I doubt that those decisions were towards taking offensive actions in a noticeable way. But, defensive actions may start to occur, logistics for one. I follow news and hope to detect that.

Be nice if any others hear things to post.

[Jimbuna]

Analyst Raises Scenario of a China Takeover of North Korea

https://www.voanews.com/a/analyst-sc...a/4060505.html

[Skybird]

China taking over N-korea - I could imagine that to be a bottomless money-grave. China may want to have a close look at the financial numbers of German re-unification - and Eastgermany was in a tip-top shape when the wall fell, compared to N-Korea.

I expect this scenario to calculate extraordinarily bad, financially. And this with China having brought itself into troubles with high-flying debts in the past years already, and inflatingtheir money. Something that 7, 8 years ago I did not expect: that they would needlessly repeat the same stupid mistakes the West has done.

[Jimbuna]

I think the greatest unknown is precisely, what is China thinking and what are their intentions.

[Delgard]

China has moved units to the long border with NK, but not enough offensively. I believe, my analytical thought, is that China will want a buffer between itself and a SK-controlled area of NK if the world's voice says that SK should have NK after a war is over.

I just see a 30-50k buffer zone that China will heavily guard. The former NK citizens in that zone will be used as very cheap labor for military projects in that zone.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Skybird

China taking over N-korea - I could imagine that to be a bottomless money-grave. China may want to have a close look at the financial numbers of German re-unification - and Eastgermany was in a tip-top shape when the wall fell, compared to N-Korea.

I expect this scenario to calculate extraordinarily bad, financially. And this with China having brought itself into troubles with high-flying debts in the past years already, and inflatingtheir money. Something that 7, 8 years ago I did not expect: that they would needlessly repeat the same stupid mistakes the West has done.

China is not a liberal/democratic state, it is not obliged to invest into the region it annexes.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I think the greatest unknown is precisely, what is China thinking and what are their intentions.

1. Getting a foothold on the Korean peninsula.
2. Keeping their flank war-free
3. Getting rid of a certain constant annoyance named Kim
4. Keeping the Americans out for sure.
5. Strenghtening their naval-strategic position in the region, namely regarding the South Chinese Sea conflict
6. Pissing India.
7. Signaling South Korea (and Taiwan!) where their place is.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

China is not a liberal/democratic state, it is not obliged to invest into the region it annexes.

But they want to appear as a high ranking civilization. Having parts of their subordinates starving by the tens of thousands year by year, is no good self-advertising. See the shopping window rivalry between the West and East along the split-German frontline during the cold war.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Skybird

But they want to appear as a high ranking civilization. Having parts of their subordinates starving by the tens of thousands year by year, is no good self-advertising. See the shopping window rivalry between the West and East along the split-German frontline during the cold war.

Yet the level of Chinese rural areas is not exactly high either, so I don't see any game changing costs here.