Dwindling technolgical superiority erodes US security guarantees

[Skybird]

https://translate.google.de/translat...det-ld.1474351

How a combination of growing economic power and innovative capability will affect the military balance in the medium term can already be seen from the Taiwan scenario. In 1996, the leadership in Peking had to let the US Navy demonstrate how little it could counter US intervention in favor of the "renegade" island republic. The threatening gestures of the American aircraft carrier battle groups around the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese armed forces had nothing to oppose. Since then, mainland China has increased its defense budget by about 750 percent, and its armed forces have adjusted to a conflict with the US. For its part, the People's Liberation Army opted for a "compensation strategy", in which not only an air defense system of partly Russian provenance but above all precision-directed, conventionally equipped short- and medium-range missiles play a central role.

Although based on initially modest industrial capacity, these measures dramatically worsened the situation for the US Armed Forces. A Rand Corporation study in 2017 concluded that since 1996, the necessary strength for a successful air offensive to support Taiwan has increased at least tenfold. The all-important conquest of the air sovereignty is thus hardly to accomplish in a operationally relevant period and with bearable own losses. Nor is it surprising that the self-esteem with which Washington had traditionally provided military support has disappeared.

As far as Taiwan is concerned I think their independence has lasted for the longest time. China's determination on this issue is merciless, and the Chinese military upbuild almost completely is motivated by and is designed for securing a successful war against Taiwan and the US, to take Taiwan back. And already right now I do not see the US Navy beign able to enforce victory in case of a hot war with China and in Far-Eastern waters. China catches up, and gets ready to overtake at least in the territories it considers to be most vital to its home interests. Their civilian-military economic command structure allows them to focus on the effort of a war much more decisevely, than in case of the American - or heaven help: European - economy structures.

Maybe one could even already go as far and say: the battle over Taiwan essentially already is over, and already has ended with a Chinese victory. The US will not go to a war with China over Taiwan. And Taiwan left to itselof would be against all odds if they militarily resist. They thus will capitulate, or seek peaceful surrender by political means before a war turns hot. Like in case of Hongkong, China can afford to trade time for gaining more and more control. Until no independence and regional autonomy is left.

[Mr Quatro]

It's okay to bring up this subject again about China, Taiwan, USA conflicts of interest ... We did it before on a thread by Kapitan, but it's worth another try.

I like your view points Sky, but mine hasn't changed ... Simply this the USA/USN is not going to wage another minor skirmish with a major nuclear country like China. If you think China could win a naval battle with the USN you are wrong. The USA would defeat China so bad they would consider taking the first shot with nuclear warheads on ICBM's and they wouldn't hold back till all of their missiles were expended.

I don't think China would take a chance by provoking the USA into a conflict over Taiwan. They have smarter arm chair admirals they me to tell their leaders this

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

It's okay to bring up this subject again about China, Taiwan, USA conflicts of interest ... We did it before on a thread by Kapitan, but it's worth another try.

I like your view points Sky, but mine hasn't changed ... Simply this the USA/USN is not going to wage another minor skirmish with a major nuclear country like China. If you think China could win a naval battle with the USN you are wrong. The USA would defeat China so bad they would consider taking the first shot with nuclear warheads on ICBM's and they wouldn't hold back till all of their missiles were expended.

I don't think China would take a chance by provoking the USA into a conflict over Taiwan.

20 years ago I woudl have agreed with you. But its not 1999 anymore, its 2019, and in ten years it will be 2029.

The article makes some hard-to-counter background aerguments about how the econoimic structure of the Chinese economy and its differences to that in the Us works for a further and accelerating shifting of the balance. They do not just copy Wetsenr technologyx anymore. They innovate it and see their military having much si8mplier access to tehcnology invented i nt he civilian sector - and no more come major tehcnologicla advances form the military branch and then spread into the civilian area - all too often now it is the other way arounds.

I also think that tehcnological leadership only to some degree can comensate nuzmericla inferiuority. And the Chinese ability to drown Taiwan under a flood of missles and enforce air superipority with planes, is intimdating already now. This at a time when own losses get accepted less and less easily by Western publics, American carrier groups being forced further and further away from Taiwain in a war - most likely so, at least - and financial underfunding meets lacking personnel pools in Wetsenr forces in general: maybe not as intense in American forces as in European ones, but still so.

The West is less and less able to afford military adventures of growing costs, both money and personnel. Western losses weigh much heavier therefore since the West finds it more diffiocult to digest them, than China.

And I do not even list the better logistical situation for China with its artificial island-creations and shorter supply lines, close harbours and continental missile umbrella against threats. Such a war would not be fought off coast San Francisco, right...

I linked that article just becasue these economic background factors influencing the ability of a nation to raise its military level mostly do not get mentioned in public debates. I found it interesting and important. The West still dreams of coexistence with a pacifist China, like European economies still dream of a peaceful coexistence wiht the Chinese industry and economy. China since decades prepares itself for the military conquest of Taiwan and keeping the American forces away. And since the second Gulf War '91 at the latest they udnerstood that they had to fundamentally rasie their tehcnological abiulities. And thats what they did. The difference in both attitudes, Chinas'S and America'S/theWest's, is fearsome. Even more so since the Chinese claim to have historical rights that go beyond territorial claims, but base on the belief thgat they just retake their dominant seat on the planet that historically was China'S "birthright" anyway. The century of Wetsern dominance in China, was just a short "lapse". A mishap of giggling history.

And no, I cannot see an american victory that much as a given anymore, since years already. To me it already now would be an open case. And the balance still is shifting against America/Japan/Taiwan, more so every month and every year. The PR-Chinese regime will get its will on Taiwan, of that I am certain.

[em2nought]

When Silicon Valley prefers to work for communists than our own military I guess that's bound to happen.

[mapuc]

So many thoughts and questions related to military, economy, politics and psychology-

How eager is China to take Taiwan which they see as a part of their country ?

How eager is USA to engage in a military conflict with China, if China use its military to take Taiwan ?

Could it be, that this Chinese military build-up near Taiwan is nothing more than sabel-something(forgot the word)and a message to the people in Taiwan to put their vote on a Chinese friendly government.

I do know the chain of command is totally different in China then it is here.

This create the next question

Our politicians how determent will they be if China do attack Taiwan ?

If I know our politicians I presume most highly it will be nothing more than sabel-something(still forgot the word), big words against China and perhaps some sanctions.

On the other hand what do I know about geopolitical, political psychology.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

So many thoughts and questions related to military, economy, politics and psychology-

How eager is China to take Taiwan which they see as a part of their country ?

Totally.

How eager is USA to engage in a military conflict with China, if China use its military to take Taiwan ?

Not very. High losses, little gains.

Could it be, that this Chinese military build-up near Taiwan is nothing more than sabel-something(forgot the word)and a message to the people in Taiwan to put their vote on a Chinese friendly government.

Unlikely. The military build-up of the past 20 years was a reaction to the war 1991, and a chnage in their stand to enforce Taiwan coming home into the Reich even by force, if it cannot be acchieved peacefully. This means they must be able to keep American carrier groups away from the war region Taiwan, and to drown Taiwanese defense with floods and floods of missiles . They also now have most likely to ferry a sufficient ground force in. The ytrain frequently to cross the straits under fire.

I do know the chain of command is totally different in China then it is here.

This create the next question

Our politicians how determent will they be if China do attack Taiwan ?

Trump's talkings ("Why caring for the drivel of yesterday when today I can talk brand new drivel?"), and the way how Brexit goes, and the military strength of the EU, all give you the answer.

Japan will be sensible to engaging in a big war with China. Different to the US, Japan is close to China and cannot just move its home islands out of harms way.

If I know our politicians I presume most highly it will be nothing more than sabel-something(still forgot the word), big words against China and perhaps some sanctions.

Sabre-rattling. You are most likely right there. The EU will protest. The UN will regret. The US will fire words with a word-gatling gun. Note that already decades ago they accepted this ting called "one-China-policy".

And Taiwan? Would face utmost destruction in case of full military resistance. the PR has more missiles than Taiwan has to catch them in the air. And the PR still stockpiles them up. If the PR goes to war over Taiwan, it will do whwatever is needed to conquer it. The price for the West to do what is needed to prevent that, is too high. The poublic here does not forgive high losses, nor can the military digest high losses anymore, it has become too fragile in numbers. Its like a heavy boxer with big punch - but cannot take blows and has a glass chin.

It took the Chinese two and a half decade to mostky catch up. We are now in a phase where technologically they are equal, in some areas even take the lead and become the motor of innovation, not just copying the West anymore. In ten years, I bet, judging by their pace of the past, they will be clearly superior over the USN in the near-China region. Many analysts said already years ago that already now they are, at least in their own waters and in support range by forces from the land. That is no surprise, if one looks at how they ran in the past 20, 25 years. They have boosted their defenc ebudget by many factors, probably two digit factors - and they do not distribute it all across the planet, like the US.

Most important, maybe: Taiwan for them is a deeply heart-felt, historic mission. That raises a spirit of a certain kind that is like a catalysator for efforts they undertake.

And btw, since you said "our polticians": why should small European states think it is their business to get enagge din a big war on the other side of the pkanet and against the next global dominator in the world that takes over that role form the US...? That the US get engaged in any form, is understandable, it is the old king defending his crown against the new king. But Europe? Is history. Many just do not understand that.

[Skybird]

All, note that the article is not just about Taiwan. It describes the problem that the loss of technological inovation power and superiority limits the ability of the US to fulfill "guarantees" it gave in the past everywehre, not just in Taiwan. Europe, for example.