US Politics Thread 2016-2020

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by August

Wikileaks has repeatedly said the emails came from a disgruntled dem party official. Who knows maybe it's true?

At this juncture who really cares where these emails came from? Let's talk about what was contained in the emails and the true face of the DNC. What a great distraction with Russia, cloak and dagger....

[vienna]

Originally Posted by August

Wikileaks has repeatedly said the emails came from a disgruntled dem party official. Who knows maybe it's true?

...and Wikileaks, and Assange, are closely linked to the Russians...



<O>

[vienna]

For those who may want to see an actual report by actual investigators instead of the faceless voices of talk radio, the talking heads of TV pundits, or the tweets galore out in the Web, here is a link to the Joint Analysis Report (JAR) issued by the Department of Homeland Security, NCCIC, and the FBI, issued Dec 29 2016, on the matter of Russian hacking and election influencing efforts. It is only 13 pages in length, so its not a hard read:

https://www.us-cert.gov/sites/defaul...-2016-1229.pdf

The report mentions a Joint Statement from the Department Of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Election Security; here is a link to that memorandum;

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2016/10/07/...ector-national

It should be noted the JAR is a release of declassified information; a larger amount of data and evidence is classified and has been shared, in an appropriate manner, with appropriate agencies in the Administration and with House and Senate leadership and the Congressional members of both houses who sit on the various intelligence committees; also of note is the acceptance of the findings by the Congressional leadership and members of both parties as to the culpability of the Russians in the matter of election hacking...

The report makes for interesting reading, although I am sure there are those who will not let a little matter like facts get in the way of their dogma...


"I know no safe depositary of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power."

--Thomas Jefferson to William C. Jarvis, 1820

"Though [the people] may acquiesce, they cannot approve what they do not understand."

--Thomas Jefferson: Opinion on Apportionment Bill, 1792

"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."

--Thomas Jefferson to Charles Yancey, 1816


...knowledge is power...




<O>

[ikalugin]

The thing is - I do not trust those reports at this time, as we have previous experience of such reports being falsified in the past in order to attain political ends. I would guess that this argument was already mentioned (and thus I appologise for probably over using it) but this looks like the pre-Iraq reporting or more recently US reporting on ISIS and Syrian rebel movement in general (where the reports regarding ISIS were changed in the military intel apparatus in order to suit the political needs at the time).

Regarding the reports, such as the 13 page one that you have linked, it does not have evidence regarding how they attributed the attacks. In fact the majority of that report is about how to prevent and deal with the attacks. Morever the report itself is poorly writen, as they mix the names of the actors with the software used (page 4 of the report) making me doubt the competence of it's authors and it's credibility.

I wonder if the purge of US intel comunity (especially the CIA) by Trump would change things, or if this patern of behaviour would contrinue, just with another vector.

[August]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

...What a great distraction.

I think that's the idea.

[vienna]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

The thing is - I do not trust those reports at this time, as we have previous experience of such reports being falsified in the past in order to attain political ends. I would guess that this argument was already mentioned (and thus I appologise for probably over using it) but this looks like the pre-Iraq reporting or more recently US reporting on ISIS and Syrian rebel movement in general (where the reports regarding ISIS were changed in the military intel apparatus in order to suit the political needs at the time).

Regarding the reports, such as the 13 page one that you have linked, it does not have evidence regarding how they attributed the attacks. In fact the majority of that report is about how to prevent and deal with the attacks. Morever the report itself is poorly writen, as they mix the names of the actors with the software used (page 4 of the report) making me doubt the competence of it's authors and it's credibility.

I wonder if the purge of US intel comunity (especially the CIA) by Trump would change things, or if this patern of behaviour would contrinue, just with another vector.

Page four is a listing of Russian Intelligence Services (RIS) alternate names; it is very likely some of the software and the agencies' alternate names are shared. There is reference to attachments in the report, CSV and XML files; these and a description of the JAR can be found at the following US-CERT link:

https://www.us-cert.gov/security-pub...Cyber-Activity

The real meat and potatoes of the investigation is still classified at this point; however, the acceptance of the report and its underlying evidence by those of both political parties who have been authorized and have seen and read the full report has been overwhelming and no verifiable concrete evidence to dispute the findings have been acknowledged to have been presented either to Congress or the Administration. If there is any sloppy work, it is at the hands of the RIS who woefully failed to hide their tracks. Perhaps there has been a quiet purge in the RIS over this issue..

I don't really think an intelligence purge of any great extent is forthcoming; should the evidence be made public after a purge, the question would become "Why were the people who were right, ousted?" and "What sort of incompetency is it to blindly purge for political purposes?". The downside may be too great and the gain too little. Add to that the impression of Trump acquiescing to Putin as a reason for a purge of US Intelligence and it becomes an even stickier mess. Besides, those purged may just decide to do a little whistle blowing themselves...

The issue of election interference is beyond partisan politics; rest assured, if Clinton had been the apparent beneficiary of Russian interference, the issue would have been the same, if not louder. I tend to agree with House Speaker Ryan (GOP) who has stated action should have been taken long ago against Russian interference by the Administration and that Congress needs to do a full and complete bipartisan investigation. Trump may want to "Move on", particularly since his election already has enough taint, but there will be investigations and there will be hearings, private and public, and there is nothing Trump or his minions can do about it, legally or Constitutionally. The issue is about the very foundation of the US electoral systems and its reliability and veracity. If conducting a thorough investigation means Putin might stop sending love letters to Trump, so be it...

Incidentally, the JAR report is just a summary; a more detailed report will be issued in the coming days...



<O>

[ikalugin]

The list says "Reported Russian Military and Civilian Intelligence Services (RIS)" followed by "Alternate Names" which implies that they a) discuss RIS - actors and b) discuss the objects of the same nature - alternative names for the objects of the same nature - RIS/actors.
By naming both actors and tools they show that they either do not have the ability to write reports or that they do not know the difference between the two, for example if this part of the report was writen separately, after all the bulk of the said report is not about attibution but about prevention and other security measures.

Further you imply that:
- there is sufficient evidence in the (classified version of the) report.
- that said evidence is valid.
As we have seen previously (Iraq being the best known example but there are others) this is not nessesary the case so I would not trust the report, especially if there are simpler explanations around (ie wikileaks explanation about a whistleblower) and if the reports themselves lack data and are writen incompetently.

Regarding the purge. You assume that they are right. What if they are wrong, and the politicians in those agencies (after all the high end officers can also be political apointees) have warped the reports? Morever the purge is nessesary as not only is the intel comunity known to falsify their reports to fit a political agenda (Iraq? ISIS?) but they would also sabotage POTUS policies, much like Pentagon sabotaged the Russia-US deal over Syria.

[MaDef]

Originally Posted by August

Wikileaks has repeatedly said the emails came from a disgruntled dem party official. Who knows maybe it's true?

I'll put Seth Rich's name into that hat.

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by vienna

Hmm...

That Obama "Obama waved his feeble fist" line followed by "...I think some people want to make everything about Trump. Same as they did with Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc...." smacks a bit of glass houses and blackened pots...

Nah, a short aside about Obama does not equate to making the "Russian hack" about Obama. It's not like I spent 1000 words on the Bible-thumping GOP.

But while we're on the subject of our President, it will be interesting to see if he brings his celebrated integrity to bear on the end of term Presidential pardons. He's actually been fairly heroic in this department. I'm interested to see if he upholds that stance. Or will he go out in a Bill Clintonesque splurge in clemency just before leaving office. I know there's the Hillary issue, will Obama pre-empt Trump and give her a pardon like Ford gave Nixon? And how about the Illinois gov. Blagojevich? Or that fruitcake Bradley Manning? Nah, I doubt that in his case, he is probably part of the Russian hacking machine. What do you think? Controversial pardons coming up, or not?

[August]

Originally Posted by MaDef

I'll put Seth Rich's name into that hat.

Wouldn't be the first suspicious death associated with the Clintons.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

But while we're on the subject of our President, it will be interesting to see if he brings his celebrated integrity to bear on the end of term Presidential pardons. He's actually been fairly heroic in this department. I'm interested to see if he upholds that stance. Or will he go out in a Bill Clintonesque splurge in clemency just before leaving office. I know there's the Hillary issue, will Obama pre-empt Trump and give her a pardon like Ford gave Nixon? And how about the Illinois gov. Blagojevich? Or that fruitcake Bradley Manning? Nah, I doubt that in his case, he is probably part of the Russian hacking machine. What do you think? Controversial pardons coming up, or not?

Interesting questions, but we only have three weeks left to see. Obama has been up to something though.

I heard that he wants to empty the US Navy base in Cuba before he leaves office.

Obama is also jockeying for a DNC political future to elect the next POTUS and of course the other DNC politicians in the the US.

I wonder if he will get a home in Chicago (murder capitial of the northern US) after he leaves DC (suppose to be staying there till his daughters finish school).

Yes, the next few weeks will be fun to watch

[ikalugin]

Especially if US political establishemnt continues to make fools of themselves like with that recent story about the diplomats.

[vienna]

It seems the House GOP has moved to pre-empt the possibility of independent review and investigation of possible wrong-doing or corruption by House members...

With No Warning, House Republicans Vote to Gut Independent Ethics Office:

http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/us/politics/with-no-warning-house-republicans-vote-to-hobble-independent-ethics-office.html

How's that whole GOP swamp draining working out, eh?...



<O>

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by vienna

How's that whole GOP swamp draining working out, eh?...<O>

Instead of draining that swamp, we may have to keep turning the heat up until they're ALL boiling in their own excrement.

[vienna]

Apparently, it didn't take all that much heat; the House GOP members behind the idea, like roaches exposed to light, have abandoned their little foray and scattered:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/after-bac...172736628.html



<O>