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Old 01-02-19, 01:19 PM   #1
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Default China v The west does the dragon have enough puff?

China v the West Does the Dragon have enough puff?

Currently speaking the economy of China has over recent years taken a bit of a hit the economy has slowed down slightly, especially since 2008 and the subprime mortgage debacle however China maintains its top spot in purchasing parity, but remains the second largest economy in the world.

In 2018 the Chinese GDP fetched in some $13.5tr USD now what we do know is the Chinese stock markets love to invest in western government securities, mainly ten year securities, so a lot of the national debt of the United States of which around 52% is owned by foreign governments China owns around 22% of the 52% which is roughly $1,202bn USD

In 2017 the Chinese economy grew by 6.9% that slowed in 2018 Q3 slightly to 6.5%, so what we know is that the Chinese economy is still on the rise, what is also worth noting is that China also has the largest banking system in the world with the most deposits to give you some figures the banking assets of Chinese banks total nearly $41tr USD while liquid funds (deposits) make for $27.4tr USD, coupled with the fact it is also the world’s largest exporter and has natural resources of over $25tr USD in raw materials including gold, coal, gas, oil etc.

Some more numbers for you, the current public debt of China is around 15.8% of GDP in comparison the United states public debt is 125% of GDP which is quite alarming, the USA also has a gross external debt of some $21.3tr USD where as China gross external debt is $1.45tr USD, both countries enjoy AAA status from the ratings agencies and a stable outlook.


So what does this mean for defence?

The United States is known as number 1 it has 10 nuclear powered aircraft carriers in its fleet, along with 66 active destroyers as well as a large force of SSN’s giving the United States navy a total including the Military Sea lift command some 477 vessels many of which are ocean going heavy warships.

The United States spends as of the latest FY2019 approval $675bn USD on defence or nearly 6% of GDP, in contrast the Chinese spends $172bn USD as of the late 2018 announcement which is the largest increase some 11% in the last 3 years.

Recently we have seen the immergence of a back engineered aircraft carrier now China fields two such carriers, and also the immergence of new more powerful and stealthy Destroyers and Frigates the type 055 is such an example.

What the numbers suggest is that while China has a hull lead on the USN (515 vessels) the reality is the majority of the fleet is made up of sea going and coastal craft, for example 110 of the listed active vessels are under 1000 tons, while the type 056 corvettes numbers some 43 vessels out of a planned 60 but again these are of small tonnage 1,500tons and not likely to range too far from home.

Vessels to watch for in my opinion are the larger types the 40 type 054 Frigates are quite powerful assets, but the key player will be the new 13,500ton type 055 Destroyers, these are rumoured to be more capable than the Arleigh Burke flt III and are armed with a 112 cell VLS system and a AESA flat phased array radar system, operating on VLF S band dubbed “Chinese Aegis” and said to be able to detect the new F35’s, so far only 8 are planned and 6 are under construction simultaneously 1 is in sea trials, which means the Chinese has a large ship building capacity and dry dock space that’s for certain because the earlier type 052D is still being built and they should number 26 when the production run ends.

Submarines are not of a major concern to China in fact China only has some 13 SSN’s the bulk of its submarine fleet is made up of conventional boats, the current type 093 Shang class 6 are in service no more to be built they are backed up by the dated type 091 Han class which remain in service, the new type 095 is awaiting the go ahead but again only 5 are planned.

The main deterrent is carried by the sole type 092 Xia class along with 4 type 094 Jin class with another 4 building this will be succeeded by the type 096.


Are we likely to see more carriers and what would their impact be?

Absolutely the type 003 is a massive project, two are in the early stages of construction they are larger than the Ford class at 110,000tons and nuclear powered they will also have EMALS another 2 are on the cards as well.
Also the type 002 is being built this is an 85,000ton carrier a sort of in between carrier and will carry around 60 aircraft.

This will bring the carrier force to a total of 7 by 2030’s and given the quick nature of the building of such ships I would put money on the fact the Chinese vessels will come in fairly on time, this will also shift the balance of power in the region dramatically to the Chinese favour, even with Japan now adopting aircraft carriers the Japanese are unlikely and unwilling to match platform for platform the Chinese, also the United states is split into many areas of operation and would only be able to dedicate one or two carriers to the area relying heavily of Japan and south Korea as well.

I would keenly watch the South Koreans as well I personally think we will see a small carrier come out of South Korea in the nearish future (10-15 years) I personally think it will be of around 30,000tons and carry something like 30 F35B Type aircraft, but I reckon it would be built that or the current Dokdo class may be converted to handle a few F35B.

Any other notable mentions?

Well yes we are also seeing the creation of a large ocean going Amphibious force from the Chinese navy the type 075 LPA vessels are of large scale some 40,000tons displacement and 250m in length, likely to be armed with around 30 helicopters this is like a mistral but on steroids, couple this with the type 071 which is 25,000tons and 210 meters long they will be a strike force all of their own, so far 3 type 075 are under construction along with the remaining 3 type 071 this means 5 type 071’s are currently active.

China also has a large force of other types of landing craft ranging from hovercraft to the much larger medium sized landing ship they would be equivalent to the round table class of the RFA in the UK, these mainly the type 073 range from 850tons to 2000tons displacement some 13 are in service of the type 073 alone while others of the type 072 number some 47 vessels again raging from 3000tons to 7000tons.

Conclusion

China is definitely one to watch I have been following them for about ten years, their speed at building and also their current stance in the south china sea tells me they are gearing up for a show down, could this be a new soviet union? I don’t think so but the numbers alone are some what disturbing and I don’t think the United States could afford another half century arms race, I now think countries that are allied to the United States should augment into closer relationships with the USN for any eventuality, nations like Canada and Germany must up their game dramatically if they want to stay in NATO, I also think playing with the Ukraine situation and Russia is a dangerous mix in the advent of any conflict we may see China ally on the Side of Russia which gives you and even bigger head ache, and we would also likely see troubles in the Persian gulf with Iran joining in as well.

Any conflict between China would spell major losses, they currently have the largest standing army in the world and also one of the largest air forces numbering over 3,000 aircraft (the US has some 5,000 if you include the air national guard and excluding the USMC and USN).

What I question the most though is the quality, Krushchev said we are churning out missiles like sausages however the quality of that sausage left much to be desired, I do think China could be in a similar boat with build quality.
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Old 01-02-19, 01:54 PM   #2
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Any war between the US and the PRC would not be fought in the Gulf of MNexico or anywhere near to American rpeleinshment sites ans bases, but relatively lcose to the continetal Chinese homeland. It is China here benefitting from short supply lines and a feel of the soldiers to fight for their home land. Plus the cover of land-based military assets, and air bases, and missiles. Also, the Ameicna military is loacted all around the planet, the Chinese is not. The Chiese can amass all their firepower onto a relatively small region, onbly need to keep an eye on the Russian neighbours. The US, while concentrating on the Chines ebattlefield, would draw ressoruces form all over the globe, it still powuld hav e a relatively huge amount of its strength-on-paper scattered across literally everywhere. Then, the public spirit. The Chinese will be able to swallow heavy losses much easier at home without the regime being in danger, than the American public would tolerate losses. And generally, i think on the mere numericla level the Chiense also can digest platform losses easier than the Americans with their preciouzs shipos and platforms. The US Navy maybe would loose ships more difficult than the Chinese, who knows - but ever yloss by the US Navy would hurt them more and would be more significant than Chinese platform losses. And finally, in the computer and cyber battlefield, the Americans would need to fight an enemy that is at least on same eye level with them - if not superior already.

As I said in the other thread: balances are shifting and with icreasing pace against America and its allies. I do not see that many states would indeed dare to confriont the Chinese in all radial consequences, if a choice must be made and cannot be avoided. I would not even be certain of Japan - not more and not less I say on Japan. As I see it, the Asian states will try to arrange themselves with the giant in their neighbourhood that looks down on them and over their shoulders.


Much stands and falls with the survivability of the American carriers. And if they can survive the question will be whether the way they maintain their mere existence in operation forces them to be so far away that their combat power is drastically reduced (which was sinc elong part of the Chinese doctrin: to keep the carriers away by a distance that they are suffering loss of usability for the enemy). And I honestly do not put my money on them if a real big war with China emerges. I read repöeately in the past years that the Chinese focus on two navy projects: to kill carriers with refurbished and altered ICBM-callibre missiles, and to force submarines out of hiding by some new detection technology they work on, and deny them the hideouts in the depth. I forgot the details on the latter, but I read it in summer somewhere, and I thought: if this ever becomes real for sure, the Western boats deserve pity. Its always a good dose of propaganda in such reports, but usually there also is at least one grain of truth in it.
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Old 01-02-19, 02:47 PM   #3
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Good analysis of how the Chinese policy has changed in an attempt to create an artifical cultural myth to unite the people where party doctrine alone did not prevent the demonstrations resulting in the massacre on the Tian-anmen plaza.



Its party agitation once again. Propaganda, and reeducation.



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No plesasant outlook. I feel confirmed by the author. Such cultural developments form self-dynamics and inherent factual constraints that cannot be escaped even if one hopes one could.
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Old 01-02-19, 07:00 PM   #4
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I'm so thankful that our politicians have been looking out for us these last four decades, and that we continue to have cheap goods in our dollar stores. It makes it all worthwhile.


I'm really happy that we spend $600 on every rifle we buy while our potential enemies get something fairly equivalent for $100? I wonder? I think they might pay even less? I guess I'm a bad "searcher", little Debbie wouldn't have been pleased.
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Old 01-03-19, 01:45 AM   #5
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China is a nuclear power. That is about all what you need to know.
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Old 01-03-19, 10:13 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikalugin View Post
China is a nuclear power. That is about all what you need to know.
Not quite even if it went nuclear the consequences for China would be horrendous.

Any person who says just nuke them or they have nuclear weapons really cant hold any argument to counter the original point.

Is nuclear war likely ? nope not a chance even if a large war was to happen the rational of people would realize that your destroying your customer base because even after war victor or not you still need to trade to survive.

And currently China is America's best customer for buying its debt.

There are other ways.
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Old 01-03-19, 10:57 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kapitan View Post
Not quite even if it went nuclear the consequences for China would be horrendous.

Any person who says just nuke them or they have nuclear weapons really cant hold any argument to counter the original point.

Is nuclear war likely ? nope not a chance even if a large war was to happen the rational of people would realize that your destroying your customer base because even after war victor or not you still need to trade to survive.

And currently China is America's best customer for buying its debt.

There are other ways.

Yes there are other ways, which is one of the reasons we strive towards a global economy to reduce the chances of war. However if someone actually went about to sink one of our carriers rationality and reason I think would fly right out the window. Other nations are watching us and would gauge their future actions based on our present response. Therefore I think China would pay a very terrible price for such an overt act of war. Only in the aftermath is anyone going to start talking about cheap labor and I-Phones again.
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Old 01-03-19, 12:51 PM   #8
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This is good that we discuss the possibilities of China's war like stance to Taiwan and the new islands they are fortifying in the South China Sea, but we have someone else doing this everyday. The U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island.

They even study the new threat's of cyber warfare, which we as a whole should be more concerned about. Taking out one of two carriers would entail a complete and devastating warfare on us all of which nothing would ever be the same again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_War_College

Quote:
The Naval War College (NWC or NAVWARCOL) is the staff college and "Home of Thought" for the United States Navy at Naval Station Newport in Newport, Rhode Island.[4] The NWC educates and develops leaders, supports defining the future Navy and associated roles and missions, supports combat readiness, and strengthens global maritime partnerships.

The Naval War College is one of the senior service colleges including the Army War College, the Marine Corps War College, and the Air War College. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Defense operates the National War College.
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Old 01-04-19, 08:33 AM   #9
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Other than varying opinions I doubt if anyone knows the definitive answer.
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Old 01-04-19, 11:03 AM   #10
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Appears the dragon that everyone believes has magical powers and can shoot laser beams out of its arse is just like the rest of us and mortal after all. China's economy may be loosing steam, hence the nationalist rhetoric, sabre rattling and rise of authoritarianism.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...news-for-china

"Chief executive Tim Cook blamed the unforeseen "magnitude of the economic deterioration" in China"
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Old 01-07-19, 12:45 PM   #11
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China maybe loosing some steam but the reality is they are still at ahead standard when it comes to a build up, this is almost a soviet time build up
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Old 01-15-19, 02:33 PM   #12
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Make a good scenario for Dangerous Waters, uh?
China is not going to back down

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...99R?ocid=ientp

'At any cost': China warns US Navy over Taiwan

Quote:
A senior Chinese military official warned the US Navy Tuesday against any "interference" in support of Taiwan's independence, saying that Beijing would defend its claim to the island "at any cost".
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Old 01-19-19, 06:30 AM   #13
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Nice propaganda video...
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Old 01-19-19, 10:45 AM   #14
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I don't reckon they have quite enough....yet.
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Old 01-19-19, 11:46 AM   #15
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With current alliances with Japan and South Korea being strong the US Pacific fleet having the largest presence in the area at the moment with carriers it would be some time before the Chinese could hold their own
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