Strike on North Korea

[Delgard]

In relation to the JSF and Korea I found that the JSF has been going on for 4-5 years.

As of AUG 2016, “The F-35 program continues to grow and accelerate as we complete additional flight testing and increase deliveries to our U.S. and partner warfighters," said Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan, F-35 Joint Program Executive Officer. More than 250 F-35 pilots and 2,400 aircraft maintainers from six nations were trained and more than 110 jets are jointly under construction at both the U.S. and Italian production facilities.

F-35s were flying at eight operating locations: Edwards Air Force Base, California, Eglin AFB, Florida, Hill AFB, Utah, Luke AFB, Arizona, Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort, South Carolina, MCAS Yuma, Arizona, Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Maryland, and Nellis AFB, Nevada. Jets are also flown at two F-35 depot locations at MCAS Cherry Point, North Carolina, and the Ogden Air Logistics Complex at Hill AFB, Utah.

“The F-35 program continues to grow and accelerate as we complete additional flight testing and increase deliveries to our U.S. and partner warfighters," said Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan, F-35 Joint Program Executive Officer. “The next 50,000 hours will be achieved much quicker as we double the size of the F-35 fleet worldwide in the next three years alone."

Plans called for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to get its first overseas deployment in 2017 to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni. Air Force F-35s probably would head to four bases: Misawa, Japan; Kadena, Japan; Osan Air Base, Korea; and Kunsan Air Base, Korea. The ones at Iwakuni are the ones that I heard about when I was in Japan. I was a big news item there.

These Stateside locations are decisions by service as presented in Aug 2016;

Air Force
Burlington Air Guard Station (AGS), Vermont*
Hill Air Force Base (AFB), Utah*
Jacksonville AGS, Florida
McEntire Joint National Guard Base (JNGB), South Carolina
Mountain Home AFB, Idaho
Shaw AFB, South Carolina

Marine Corps
Yuma MCAS, Arizona

Navy
Lenoore NAS, California

Note: Obviously, Homeland Security aircraft flying out of ANG bases have some priority. The Italian factory is probably servicing European orders and Japan has started receiving. It won't happen overnight, but the General (Aug 2016) stated that over 250 have been built.

As to a Korean deployment, I suspect that the U.S. today, can get 100 forward deployed. Those left behind would consolidate their missions to cover priority missions, If anyone lives near these places, news would be good. When I suggested possible locations I thought more that each Theater COCOM would get a stateside-based squadron and not the Homeland Security needs or I suppose that could be based and do both missions.

For this discussion I thought more about Korea.

[ikalugin]

Oberon, yes we use storable propellants.

The trade offs tend to be that liquid fueled missiles would have greater payload all other factors being the same while being somewhat more complex mechanically and having a longer burn time.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Oberon, yes we use storable propellants.

The trade offs tend to be that liquid fueled missiles would have greater payload all other factors being the same while being somewhat more complex mechanically and having a longer burn time.

I guess it's that maintainence upkeep that discourages other nations from going down the liquid propellant route for things like SLBMs, that and things like K-219 as well I'd wager. The Bulava is an interesting case though since it's a three stage SLBM that uses both solid fuel and liquid fuel as propellant. Probably that complexity which coupled with manufacturing faults caused the initial high failure rate.

So what liquid fuel do the new SLBMs use? Presumably something more stable than the UDMH/NTO mixture of the R-27s?


Getting back to the DPRK, a mixture of US force is heading to the ROK this week, the Ronald Reagan and the Michigan, and a load of US aerial assets heading for a defence expo:

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/nati...ampaign=buffer

The DPRK meanwhile has been playing TEL shuffle, so something might be in the offing.

[Delgard]

Yonhap is a decent service. Any bias still needs to be watched for, though. Basic news, sans editorial commentary, is noticeably clearer.

[ikalugin]

I think the primary reason is path dependence, back in 60s when US made the decision to go all solid fuelled it did so because they perceived solid fuelled missiles as being more reliable/easy to maintain.

By 70s/80s Soviets solved the reliability issues with new generation of weapons (ie R29 series).

Bulava is a solid fuel missile (made by the company that never desighned SLBMs btw), unless you count the bus.

[Rockstar]

"Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says President Donald Trump wants him to push forward on diplomacy with North Korea “until the first bomb drops.”

Until?

Tillerson’s comments on CNN’s “State of the Union” program on Sunday apparently weren’t meant literally as a timeline for war, as he preceded that quote by saying, “He has made it clear to me to continue my diplomatic efforts,” and that those efforts “will continue until the first bomb drops.”"


why am I reminded of this? (from one of my favorite movies)

[Delgard]

It gets Trump out of a deadline. Yes, there are a lot of naval and air forces going to SK this week, but it does not tie him down. Also, NK has not done anything in 30 days. I do wonder if a decision has been made to shoot down missiles that overfly Japan, though. That will up the gambit.

[mapuc]

Some hours ago I read this in a Danish news paper (Berlingske)

I have used google translate

"
The editor Consider

The fear of nuclear war

Not since the worst period of the Cold War, have there been a greater fear of nuclear war between the United States and North Korea, than it is now. The uncertainty is not made less by the fact that the media are filled with more or less solve stories about chaos in the White House.
There are actually also speculation about President Donald Trump mental stamina to withstand such a crisis, spiced with speculation about what will happen if the unthinkable should happen - that Trump in rage orders a nuclear attack on North Korea, and his generals and top ministers are against it, but in reality powerless once the order is given.

Of course, it is far out, we think in Europe that this fear has got the dimensions it has. But the Americans are bombarded daily by a combination of new verbal and concrete war threats from North Korea paired with counterparts from Trumps twitter account.
And as said with American media, there is a lot of speculation about how the collaborative climate really is in the White House, where one day rumors that Foreign Minister Rex Tillerson is on his way out for the next day to know that It is the Chief of Staff of the White House, John Kelly, who has had enough. The trained general apparently does not fully control Trump.
This may again cause concern for a population that may also suffer from violent twitter outbreaks from the president against soon one and soon the other politician who thrashed on his nerves .

In the midst of all this, China has no real clue about the situation with North Korea, in addition, Chinese does not seem to have much control over North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un.
He is able to play with the fire both in relation to the United States and China, without it having any real consequences. One must say that it is well done by a young man who lives his own life in a world built around a goddess of the dynasty founded by Kim's grandfather.

Several calculations show that if the war breaks out, one million. people will lose their lives in the first 24 hours of such a war. So serious are the consequences if nuclear weapons are used.

So the big question is how to negotiate with a North Korea who is not interested in negotiating. Trump has ridiculed his foreign minister to try to talk to North Korea at all and said that it is, of course, a waste of time.
But Tillerson has more than suggested that the United States has an opening and can talk to the regime in North Korea.
Perhaps closer to the country's foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, who has been most active, both with warlike outcomes and more thoughtful opinions, but is still prepared to speak.

Kim Jong-un is out of reach. Unfortunately, it seems that so is Trump. The US president is currently busy repuding another Republican politician who has questioned his capacity as president. No wonder the Americans keep their breath.

I can't say if this Editor is right in his considering. if he is, then the question is who among the staff in the White house have enough nerve to stay calm when it is really needed-Is it Rex Tillerson ?

Markus

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Delgard

I do wonder if a decision has been made to shoot down missiles that overfly Japan, though. That will up the gambit.

Risky, since by the time they're going over Japan they're some 600-700km high, which is higher than anything ever intercepted by AEGIS before.

Originally Posted by ikalugin

I think the primary reason is path dependence, back in 60s when US made the decision to go all solid fuelled it did so because they perceived solid fuelled missiles as being more reliable/easy to maintain.

That's a fair point, the infrastructure is all in place for liquid fueled missiles in Russia so I guess if they haven't broken it.

Bulava is a solid fuel missile (made by the company that never desighned SLBMs btw), unless you count the bus.

Yeah, I meant the bus.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I'm sure that if we ask Kim Jong-un nicely he'll stand down and hand himself over to be tried by the international courts.

Ridiculous! The arrest warrant for his half-brother's VXatious Malaysian murder being my idea.... Nonetheless, I have a much simpler solution: If only we could hire Peter Madsen of the Nautilus to skipper the 'other' Kim's submarine...

[Delgard]

But will the firing of another missile over Japan prompt a response? What will cross the Trump line, the Chinese line, what about the world line.

As to a single Seal Team, There are about 6-700 SOF personnel in the immediate area. But, at this point they don't do squiddley when nukes are considered.

It is about gamesmanship.

[Rockstar]

Hit or miss attempting to intercept an ICBM with THAAD or a SM3 block iia might not be such a good idea.

I think there is the possibility of a miss and should that occur it could lead to embarrassment and more fuel for the NorKs propaganda machine.

However even worse, if one was fired and it successfully intercepted that ICBM. I can only imagine the fear which would overcome more than just a few nations. As they witness the most powerful nation in world not only with its own intercontinental ballistic nuclear arsenal, but now with the capability of shooting down everyone else's.

[Delgard]

Some General, at the SK IDEX, said that their were 187 active F35s. He also said that SK will receive 40 of them starting next year.

Just clarity and the latest.

[Oberon]

New SSB under construction in the DPRK, said to be bigger than their current SSB.

https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/the-...-construction/


Also, a good article on the DPRKs missile ranges here:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-1...ge-map/8880894

[Delgard]

And they are just now talking about it? But, The Diplomat writes quality as compared to quickness.