You make some valid points skybird i can agree with some of them but not all
I agree we have too few escorts however this is easily resolved, look at how many wars we have been in a coalition with 1982 is the exception not the rule, in 2003 HMS Ark Royal was guarded by type 42's and Arleigh Burke destroyers, and on a wider front we had assistance from the Australian navy also.
Our current navy is set up to work chiefly with our allies now its not uncommon for the French carrier to go to sea with Belgian Dutch or German frigates along side too in fact even our own type 45's and type 23's have escorted French assets.
I think Skybird your thinking in two dimensions where as our navy is thinking in Three dimensions, a war with Russia (Very unlikely) will likely see the entire USA and NATO against this "threat" to which there would be an abundance of escorts available to the new carriers from other navies acting as a coalition of nations it also allows the strike capability of the European nations to increase even after we leave the EU i don't for one moment believe that we wont ever work together again.
The days of operating alone are pretty much over i would say in fact the 2017 sailing shows perfectly my stance when i say we work together, the HMS Queen Elizabeth met up with the USN group headed by the USS George Bush and escorted by HMNoS Helge Indsadt HMS Westminster HMS Iron Duke USS Donald Cook USS Philippine sea and USNS Supply.
It is actually quite often we work with the USN i guess you could say the Royal navy is the USN European fleet seeing as they dont get the same support from Germany or France.
You said Admiral Woodward stated that "loose a carrier loose the war" yes he did state that you are correct however the two carriers down there at that time were very small and between them they had a total of 20 harriers, a full combat load for a QE is 36 aircraft (could stretch to 40) and F35B we have 138 confirmed orders for the this type, so the loss of one wouldn't be as big an issue as it would otherwise have been yes admittedly a massive blow but still not the knockout, there were many other contributing factors to the whole war as well for example the type 909 radar couldn't pick up low flying objects close to a shore line the new Sampson radar can, we relied heavily on missile defense today not so we use CIWS systems to augment the missiles.
Manpower is an issue but however it has not tied our ships up as much as other nations in contrast to the 4,000 people on an American carrier or the French Charles De Gaulle 1,350 required to man them the HMS Queen Elizabeth requires just 600 people (I've not included the air wings), and moral in the service is fairly high at the moment, yes recruitment is a slight issue but not as big of one as the media portrays, Even the BBC has a political agenda even though technically it is supposed to be Neutral.
I agree the whole of Europe is suffering a problem with man power and also spending this i would say is a big problem as for your own fleet the German navy has been under funded for a very long time you have some impressive assets yet neglect the funds for a lot of the work and crews not to mention numbers, currently the German nation spends 1.2% GDP on defense the UK spends around 1.8% the German economy is larger than the UK and therefore should be able to afford an increase i know they want to bring the level up to 1,5% but still its low in comparison to the UK and France and doesn't meet the NATO advised target of 2%.
The current major fleet is 19 escort vessels the rule of 3 is peace time operations while true 1 at sea 1 preparing to go to sea or working up or light refit 1 in major overhaul the reality is we could indeed put 4 DDG's 6 FFG's to sea in that situation, the 12 RFA vessels don't tend to operate the same rotation they spend a lot longer at sea than RN ships so generally speaking there's always 8 or 9 RFA ships available somewhere, be it the Indian ocean Caribbean south Atlantic or home waters, out of the entire RFA 6 of the vessels are dedicated tankers we also have three other dry store vessel in lay up so if needed we can bring into service 15 ships if needed this also doesn't include the four point class RO RO vessels (two are permanently chartered to the MOD and two others can be used if needed) this brings the numbers to 19 RFA Vessels.
Do not forget the RFA is a civilian force and is manned by civilians and is not part of the Royal Navy at all they conform to the Merchant Navy code, like all nations too we would rely heavily on our commercial merchant navy in time of war (i worked on such a vessel in 2003-2006 that was chartered to the MOD) so the man power there inst much of an issue, also we have the RNR which are fully qualified reservists and in time of war or in time of need they can be called upon each person who departs the military in the UK is contractually required to sign on to a reserve force for a minimum of 6 years after which it becomes a voluntary basis and any person can join, this force adds a lot of flexibility to the fleet and it is not uncommon to find RNR personnel in with normal crews on any ship or submarine in the fleet the reason they sail so often is to keep them current on developments i don't know if Germany has the same system.
As for Sweden that's a whole different kettle of fish all together, Sweden by constitutional decree cannot legally be allied to any nation therefore they are on their own and they know it this is why Sweden is not part of NATO or any other formal alliance, it also has different objectives to the UK and maintains Local defense rather than global operations their Navy is optimized for sea warfare in the Baltic and coastal defense not open ocean deployments, it is a large country 2 times the size of the UK but with a population of less than London (Sweden has 5.5 Million London 8.2 million the UK 68+ Million) we don,'t require the draft but as i said Sweden is alone and due to numbers requires it their neighbor Norway with a similar situation does have conscription as does Denmark.
It is extremely unlikely we would be involved in a war with Russia or China yes a threat is there but we wouldn't stand alone and that's the key thing we train more and more as a coalition i think your thinking of a all out battle with Russia V UK that is extremely unlikely to happen it would likely be UK NATO v Russia its not likely at all we would take them on alone.
As for the notion of Inferior enemy i would agree with that currently the threat from Argentina is low but we could handle conflict with any south American naval power (including Brazil) with the Current assets we have.
The UK could not take on 1 v 1 against nations such as Russia China India France & USA but the latter two and loosely the third are allied nations our navy is designed really to overwhelm technologically any enemy that poses a threat Iraq is a push over Iran doesn't poses the strike capability the UK does and whats more the UK can sustain extended operations in that region and the Iranians know that we wouldn't come alone, what we couldn't do is a land war i don't think that would be too costly for us.
The UK and Dutch navies operate a joint Amphibious force and our efforts are largely swayed to that type of operation as well as ASW efforts we have 2 LPD type vessels in HMS Bulwark & Albion but also we have 3 Bay class LPD (A) to off set this we have the ability to call up 4 point class which can operate as LST, one of the set missions given to the new Queen Elizabeth class carrier was amphibious landing support we learnt from the American experience this is why they have LPA type vessels operating VTOL aircraft.
The capability of the Royal Navy is still there although numbers much decreased the Queen Elizabeth will likely in the near future operate drones as well as manned aircraft yes this maybe the last carrier for manned aircraft we build but she is here and her sister is coming along.
You seem as if you want every ship fully stocked ready for war in peace time that's never the case, the only two places where a ship is likely to go to sea with a full war load is Gulf of Aden and Persian gulf the rest of the oceans are at peace we do not need to go to sea with maximum war load the presence is enough, if war broke out every ship has enough to carry a fight and be fully stocked our stockpiles are not as depleted as you think indeed you also have to remember we disperse some of our stock around the globe to places like Falklands Bahrain USA etc so mainland stock isn't always full, we also have ships on charter that deliver our fuel to our overseas bases directly.
Things will change and things will be different in 20 or 30 years time i agree but right now these carriers are an investment and a statement of intent we may no longer Rule the waves but the RN is still a fighting force to be taken seriously.
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