Quote:
Originally Posted by Kapitan
The Bosporus is open at the moment to vessels of all flags in accordance to international law under freedom of navigation the Turkish Authorities cannot at the present time close the straight to Russian traffic
In terms of international treaties closing the straight could also be deemed an act of war / aggression should the Turks blockade the area it would trap the Black sea fleet in the Black sea but would also mean Turkish Forces would bear the brunt of the first wave of attacks (if they were to get involved and side with the USA etc etc)
The main bulk of heavy platforms are located in the Northern fleet, so once you see them on the move you know its going to be a big deal, at present i think they will send out a couple more submarines i would likely put money on the Oscar II's and another Akula class probably one of two Kilo's from the black sea, i also think if it got a bit more serious we would see some of the Baltic fleet link with the Northern and come down as a task group we would also sea Moskva come out to play as well.
Right now i think that possibly a Russian SSN is lurking in the STROG awaiting passing vessels and also keeping an Eye on Rota Spain for sailings.
At a guess the US will send in a couple more of submarines thats a for sure thing we will likely see submarines sail from Toloun France and at the moment there wont be any further UK deployment.
What i do know is the current laid up HMS Torbay has had her de fuel pushed back which would give the RN a spare usable SSN if needed, if this continues we could even see HMS Trenchant have her service life extended (due to decommission next year)
Do i think the Russians have something of a couple submarines in and around Spanish waters and STROG ? most certainly
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The moment a Russian ship opens fire at a US Navy ship or plane, the Bosporus will be shut down by NATO, international treaties allowing it or not: it does not matter. Whether it will be the Turks or the Americans and Greek and Italians, it does not matter. And I assume not even the Turks will get asked about it. Drop mines with or without their permission. If engaged with the Russian navy, I have serious doubts that the heads of the US navy and air force would trust Turkey any longer. And that mistrust I would expand to many other NATO countries as well: Greece, Germany... Its a theatre company, in my opinion, not so much a wartime union, for parading during peacetime parties and the likes.