ROE System
As stated earlier, this design concept essentially invovles a tense situation which will begin to boil over as the mission goes on. As such, we need a rather complex ROE system, at least on the Coalition side.
Iranian ROE, in a nutshell, would be "don't get caught." AI units would be set to Peacetime ROE while players would be cleared to use whatever force they beleived they could apply and get away with. AI units would switch to Wartime ROE at such time that it appears that Coalition forces are engaged in general offensive operations. Some AI units would be scripted to conduct limited attacks in spite of ROE, perhaps these units would be on a different "side" but allied with the main Iranian side so that each can be under a different ROE at the time.
Coalition ROE will be determined largely by the extent to which provocative action can be attributed to Iran. The amount of provocation that occurs will be tracked through triggers and will be cumulative. Coalition forces will start at pure peacetime ROE, meaning they may fire only in self defense. At a certain level of provocation, that may switch to modified peacetime ROE, where specific platforms are directed to use force against specific platforms under certain conditions. At a high level of provocation, the gloves come off and Coalition forces will be authorized to conduct general offensive operations against Iranian units, at least for a time.
Low-level provocations include: approaching Coalition platforms in international waters or airspace, intrusions into territorial waters or airspace that does not imminently threaten Coalition interests, and attacks against Coalition forces that cannot be attributed to Iranian forces (e.g., might have been AQI). Individual low-level provocations are unlikely to result in ROE changes, but an accumulation of them may move the ROE into the middle territory.
Moderate provocations include: intrusions into territorial waters that threaten Coalition interests, attempts to capture boarding teams or downed pilots (even if slightly inside Iranian territorial waters), harassment of key assets in international waters. A moderate provocation may result in an ROE change to the middle territory, especially if accumulated with other provocations.
High-level provocations include: Coalition forces observing Iranian platforms deploying mines or special forces, sabotage or bombings attributable to Iranian agents. (Covert hostile action) A high level provocation will result in an ROE change to the middle territory. Additional provocation may cause a general offensive response.
Very High-level provocations include open attacks against Coalition assets, particularly missile and torpedo attacks, as well as suicide attacks that are immediately attributable to Iranian forces. Very high level provocations will result in retaliatory action which may include a general offensive response.
The ROE should end up being a key piece of the virtual chess game being played out. Iran has an interest in keeping the ROE tight because that will allow it to do more to change the situation to its favor before all hell breaks loose, so it has a strong incentive to "play by the rules" and not get detected. The Coalition has a strong interest in catching Iran red-handed for the inverse reason. The Coalition will also need incentive to play by the rules, which can be accomplished by punishing the Coalition in the strategic/political "score" (for example, by weakening US political will or by requiring Coalition forces to pull back some, weakening the US's position in the diplomatic arena and delaying, perhaps indefinitely, any war over the nuclear/insurgent issues). Coalition ROE violations could also trigger an Iranian response at a time before the US is able to ensure it can protect its own assets or the SLOC. In this situation, both sides would be deemed to have "lost." So, both sides are trying to manipulate the ROE while they try to move their pieces into checkmate. If that process goes badly for the Iranians, they have the option to force a stalemate with a scorched sea strategem, provided the Coalition does not already have them in checkmate by then.
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