Yeah, if you look at the waypoints some of them get close to the coast then make a 135 degree turn, which is way too much for collision avoidance so they all go spastic. Spacing them out and adding intermediate waypoints helps. but doesn't eliminate the problem entirely.
One theory I have is that the lead escort is usually the group leader, and if he decides to cut through the formation on a sweep and gets rammed and sunk by a cruiser or something - well, the whole group no longer has a leader so they all start acting like drunken waterbugs. My guess is the waypoints are programmed into the lead ship of the group, once that's sunk nobody else knows where the next waypoint is. So far I haven't been able to prove or disprove that, it's just an impression at this point.
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