My key to victory as a fighter pilot is the gut feeling on where the guy in my crosshair is going to turn next. After awhile, you can see the pattern. For example, alot of people are right-handed, so when they pull up, they usually turn left (as itīs easier to push the stick to left than to pull it to the right with your right hand). And when the enemy plane goes off screen, you can pretty much judge his options from his current position, speed & altitude.
Same goes for the shooting, the gut feeling. After while, you dont need to think how much lead you should take to hit, you "just know it".