SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - Does anyone have access to Jane's Fighting Ships?

fatty · 03-09-09, 02:13 PM

Thanks for your comments, this is good practice for my thesis defence. I will try to address your points in order and clarify things in the essay.

I think I can see what you mean with your first point; Iraq is considered a failed state yet has no piracy, so the failed state condition is of limited utility, but wait, there's a huge coalition navy (big deterrent) keeping station off the coast. The Failed State Index is a curious animal that way. I challenge its utility in describing or predicting piracy for this reason; there's a lot more to the kinds of opportunities available for coastal economies and to effective deterrence then is accurately conveyed by the Failed State Index. So out of the top ten failed states listed in the FSI, only Somalia really has any pirate activity worth mentioning. Indonesia is #60 in the list (actually beneath Israel) but up until a few years ago had more piracy than Somalia. A failed state by definition lacks legitimate alternatives for would-be criminals and is unable to enforce its sovereignty or security, but only evaluating countries through this perspective is too simplistic. To accurate predict a specific occurance like piracy you need to put more weigh on variables like profitability (are there lots of juicy targets out there?) and access to equipment (are we unemployed fishermen with boats we can use for piracy?). The FSI doesn't do this.

Haha, I swear I wasn't trying to draw any connections, I swear

Just trying to give some background on the fallout from the Asian Financial Crisis in Indonesia, I will revise.

Thanks, I assume you mean the section 5, on dimensions of risk, my supervisor also thought this was my strongest chapter.

Mogadishu has expressed its interest in cooperating with international security forces in battling pirates but my suspicion is that they are getting a cut of the profits and won't follow up on this.

I am not sure I understand your bit about p.46, can you maybe clarify?

You are right about the flagging bit. Under Article 98 of UNCLOS, if a U.S.-flagged warship saw a U.S.-flagged merchant under attack by pirates within Somali territorial waters, the warship can invoke self-defence and move in to assist. As you note the problem is that there is not much U.S.-flagged commercial traffic. Hopefully the UN resolutions I cite will make the problem of Somali maritime sovereignty a non-issue.

Regarding risk vs. gain as cost-effectiveness, and thanks for reminding me that this needs clarifying, you need to address both. You can bring in your navy or marine police and piracy will disappear, but to keep piracy down you're going to need to maintain a significant presence (deterrent) indefinitely, because as soon as you leave you can expect piracy to return. A perpetual security presence is an expensive prospect. On the other hand, if you want to develop a region, build roads, schools, warehouses or whatever, a lot of angry guys with RPGs and AKs are going to make that a little challenging. Think of it this way. If you, the coastal settlement, have only security, nobody is going to come and buy your fish because you aren't selling any. If you have only development, nobody is going to come and buy your fish because you chase everyone away in your speedboat with your RPG. The two approaches must go together.

Thanks again for your comments. I will put SUBSIM.com in my acknowledgements

If you want, PM me your real name and I will put that in too.

03-09-09, 02:13 PM	#12
fatty The Old Man Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Canada Posts: 1,448 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Thanks for your comments, this is good practice for my thesis defence. I will try to address your points in order and clarify things in the essay. I think I can see what you mean with your first point; Iraq is considered a failed state yet has no piracy, so the failed state condition is of limited utility, but wait, there's a huge coalition navy (big deterrent) keeping station off the coast. The Failed State Index is a curious animal that way. I challenge its utility in describing or predicting piracy for this reason; there's a lot more to the kinds of opportunities available for coastal economies and to effective deterrence then is accurately conveyed by the Failed State Index. So out of the top ten failed states listed in the FSI, only Somalia really has any pirate activity worth mentioning. Indonesia is #60 in the list (actually beneath Israel) but up until a few years ago had more piracy than Somalia. A failed state by definition lacks legitimate alternatives for would-be criminals and is unable to enforce its sovereignty or security, but only evaluating countries through this perspective is too simplistic. To accurate predict a specific occurance like piracy you need to put more weigh on variables like profitability (are there lots of juicy targets out there?) and access to equipment (are we unemployed fishermen with boats we can use for piracy?). The FSI doesn't do this. Haha, I swear I wasn't trying to draw any connections, I swear Just trying to give some background on the fallout from the Asian Financial Crisis in Indonesia, I will revise. Thanks, I assume you mean the section 5, on dimensions of risk, my supervisor also thought this was my strongest chapter. Mogadishu has expressed its interest in cooperating with international security forces in battling pirates but my suspicion is that they are getting a cut of the profits and won't follow up on this. I am not sure I understand your bit about p.46, can you maybe clarify? You are right about the flagging bit. Under Article 98 of UNCLOS, if a U.S.-flagged warship saw a U.S.-flagged merchant under attack by pirates within Somali territorial waters, the warship can invoke self-defence and move in to assist. As you note the problem is that there is not much U.S.-flagged commercial traffic. Hopefully the UN resolutions I cite will make the problem of Somali maritime sovereignty a non-issue. Regarding risk vs. gain as cost-effectiveness, and thanks for reminding me that this needs clarifying, you need to address both. You can bring in your navy or marine police and piracy will disappear, but to keep piracy down you're going to need to maintain a significant presence (deterrent) indefinitely, because as soon as you leave you can expect piracy to return. A perpetual security presence is an expensive prospect. On the other hand, if you want to develop a region, build roads, schools, warehouses or whatever, a lot of angry guys with RPGs and AKs are going to make that a little challenging. Think of it this way. If you, the coastal settlement, have only security, nobody is going to come and buy your fish because you aren't selling any. If you have only development, nobody is going to come and buy your fish because you chase everyone away in your speedboat with your RPG. The two approaches must go together. Thanks again for your comments. I will put SUBSIM.com in my acknowledgements If you want, PM me your real name and I will put that in too.