SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - A new slant on RIMPAC Naval politics/The Fight To Control The South China Sea

Oberon · 07-12-16, 07:21 PM

It's a tricky one, because they clearly want to flex their muscles in the Eastern Pacific, but they're still racing to catch up with the US in terms of naval power, which limits quite a bit of their territorial ambitions, particularly in regards to Taiwan and the South China Sea.
At some point there will come a time when the PLAN will be ready to take on the USN, I doubt it'll be this side of 2020, but it is going to happen.
By this point Japan will have militarised, and it will be racing to produce a nuclear weapon, it won't take Japan long to make one, it has the facilities in place, and at this point things start to get very complicated and the likelihood of nuclear war gets very near to 1, because although the US might be reluctant to go nuclear on events on the other side of the Pacific, to the Japanese it's on their doorstep and they are under no pretenses that given half the chance the PRC would flatten Japan and feel no remorse about it.
At this point, if Japan and the PRC exchange, then depending on who fired first, the US may well decide to switch to tactical weapons to hit PLAN fleets and facilities, the PRC will probably retaliate by nuking Hawaii, and we're vaulting up the escalation ladder towards a bad conclusion.

There are a lot of factors, and to be honest the scenario above is a bad case scenario (although they seem to be the rage in 2016) and the PRC may well decide to bring Taiwan in through a less militaristic approach, because to be honest, invading Taiwan will not be an easy task for the PRC, not even on the other side of 2020, and the last thing the PRC wants to do is to capture a burning wreck of an island which will sink their economy to try to fix it. If they can take Taiwan with all of its economy intact then that will be much better for them, and it's a route they're far more likely to try to take, unless...of course...someone pushes them into a corner.

If the Chinese economy should tank, if some kind of trade war breaks out which China loses, it may decide to take the military option in order to provide a war for the people to rally around, or the ruling government may be replaced by one that is more willing to use military force to solve the Taiwan issue. Either way, pushing China into a corner....not wise.

I think that if given the option not to go to war, then they would choose it, but if there is more to gain through war, then China will go to war.

07-12-16, 07:21 PM	#85
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	It's a tricky one, because they clearly want to flex their muscles in the Eastern Pacific, but they're still racing to catch up with the US in terms of naval power, which limits quite a bit of their territorial ambitions, particularly in regards to Taiwan and the South China Sea. At some point there will come a time when the PLAN will be ready to take on the USN, I doubt it'll be this side of 2020, but it is going to happen. By this point Japan will have militarised, and it will be racing to produce a nuclear weapon, it won't take Japan long to make one, it has the facilities in place, and at this point things start to get very complicated and the likelihood of nuclear war gets very near to 1, because although the US might be reluctant to go nuclear on events on the other side of the Pacific, to the Japanese it's on their doorstep and they are under no pretenses that given half the chance the PRC would flatten Japan and feel no remorse about it. At this point, if Japan and the PRC exchange, then depending on who fired first, the US may well decide to switch to tactical weapons to hit PLAN fleets and facilities, the PRC will probably retaliate by nuking Hawaii, and we're vaulting up the escalation ladder towards a bad conclusion. There are a lot of factors, and to be honest the scenario above is a bad case scenario (although they seem to be the rage in 2016) and the PRC may well decide to bring Taiwan in through a less militaristic approach, because to be honest, invading Taiwan will not be an easy task for the PRC, not even on the other side of 2020, and the last thing the PRC wants to do is to capture a burning wreck of an island which will sink their economy to try to fix it. If they can take Taiwan with all of its economy intact then that will be much better for them, and it's a route they're far more likely to try to take, unless...of course...someone pushes them into a corner. If the Chinese economy should tank, if some kind of trade war breaks out which China loses, it may decide to take the military option in order to provide a war for the people to rally around, or the ruling government may be replaced by one that is more willing to use military force to solve the Taiwan issue. Either way, pushing China into a corner....not wise. I think that if given the option not to go to war, then they would choose it, but if there is more to gain through war, then China will go to war.