Was just going to lurk on this one, as I'm not familiar with the game, but being a math oriented type of guy, I had this thought as I read it.
It all boils down to kill ratio, or attrition rate.
The superior tech will kill the enemy faster, but the more numerous side can overcome these losses with quicker reinforcements.
So as long as one sides (kill/loss)/(loss/replacement) ratio is greater than their opponents, they will win, eventually. This actually takes into account tactical advantages, as it's reflected the kill.loss ratio.
So to break it down, the tech side has the advantage in the kill/loss ratio, but the other side has it in the loss/replacement ratio. So it all depends on how fast they can be killed, or replaced.
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Luck is a residue of Design.
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