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BTW, after ~june/July 1944, the chances might go down a bit, they lost something like 40 subs in those 2 months (about equal to the whole war up to that point).
tater
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Yes that's right, though destroyers had the major share on that in some special operations (Hunt&kill). Sinkings by US submarines were more or less average along the war AFAIK, most of the time by Ultra but also -specially near the japanese coast- by some casual find of the enemy sub. (Source: Silent Victory)
Sergei, I think you should set a low spawn rate coupled with a high contact rate, to represent well the lower number of subs when compared to other warships, but the influence of Ultra in locating them