[Skybird]

Any war between the US and the PRC would not be fought in the Gulf of MNexico or anywhere near to American rpeleinshment sites ans bases, but relatively lcose to the continetal Chinese homeland. It is China here benefitting from short supply lines and a feel of the soldiers to fight for their home land. Plus the cover of land-based military assets, and air bases, and missiles. Also, the Ameicna military is loacted all around the planet, the Chinese is not. The Chiese can amass all their firepower onto a relatively small region, onbly need to keep an eye on the Russian neighbours. The US, while concentrating on the Chines ebattlefield, would draw ressoruces form all over the globe, it still powuld hav e a relatively huge amount of its strength-on-paper scattered across literally everywhere. Then, the public spirit. The Chinese will be able to swallow heavy losses much easier at home without the regime being in danger, than the American public would tolerate losses. And generally, i think on the mere numericla level the Chiense also can digest platform losses easier than the Americans with their preciouzs shipos and platforms. The US Navy maybe would loose ships more difficult than the Chinese, who knows - but ever yloss by the US Navy would hurt them more and would be more significant than Chinese platform losses. And finally, in the computer and cyber battlefield, the Americans would need to fight an enemy that is at least on same eye level with them - if not superior already.

As I said in the other thread: balances are shifting and with icreasing pace against America and its allies. I do not see that many states would indeed dare to confriont the Chinese in all radial consequences, if a choice must be made and cannot be avoided. I would not even be certain of Japan - not more and not less I say on Japan. As I see it, the Asian states will try to arrange themselves with the giant in their neighbourhood that looks down on them and over their shoulders.


Much stands and falls with the survivability of the American carriers. And if they can survive the question will be whether the way they maintain their mere existence in operation forces them to be so far away that their combat power is drastically reduced (which was sinc elong part of the Chinese doctrin: to keep the carriers away by a distance that they are suffering loss of usability for the enemy). And I honestly do not put my money on them if a real big war with China emerges. I read repöeately in the past years that the Chinese focus on two navy projects: to kill carriers with refurbished and altered ICBM-callibre missiles, and to force submarines out of hiding by some new detection technology they work on, and deny them the hideouts in the depth. I forgot the details on the latter, but I read it in summer somewhere, and I thought: if this ever becomes real for sure, the Western boats deserve pity. Its always a good dose of propaganda in such reports, but usually there also is at least one grain of truth in it.