Finally found the little culprit - \Data\Campaigns\Campaign\EastAsiaCampaign.mis has dozens of them. Main problem is the formation is too tight, the recommended minimum spacing of 500 meters isn't enough when there are a lot of waypoints with sharp turns involved. I fixed one formation;
8 small passenger liners
3 TAKAO heavy cruisers
5 AKIZUKI destroyers
And followed it around without attacking, seems to work a lot better.
First thing is spread the destroyer screen out to 2000 meter minimum spacing - destroyers love to leave the formation to do sweeps, and all too often they decide to go sightseeing just as the formation is starting a turn. 1000 meters minimum between all the ships in the formation is a must, and to make attacking it worthwhile I might replace the 8 tiny troopships with bigger passenger liners, maybe replace one of the cruisers with a battlewagon.
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