[Skybird]

[Tichy's Einblicke] [The author] Prof Dr sc. techn. Thomas Koch has been Head of the Institute of Reciprocating Engines at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) since 2013 and is responsible for internal combustion engine matters in the areas of research, teaching and innovation.
----------------------------
Fraudulent calculations are the only way to claim that electric cars are "cleaner" than diesel cars. In fact, the emissions of diesel vehicles are lower than the emissions of comparable electric vehicles at all times, Thomas Koch calculates:

Around 10 years ago, the well-known economist Professor Hans-Werner Sinn published his article "Energy transition to nowhere". Today we know that unimaginable implementation rigour, unprecedented failure on the part of German elites, decision-makers ducking away, huge public pressure built up by non-governmental organisations and unfortunate events such as the reactor disaster in Fukushima have created conditions that make Germany increasingly unattractive as an industrial location.

In addition to the failed energy transition with industrial electricity prices that will be around five times higher in Germany than in China in 2023, the mobility transition has also been driven forward with equally unimaginable vigour. The top priority in recent years has been the unconditional ban on the combustion engine. The CO2 advantage of the electric car was cited as the reason for this. The mantra of balance sheet fraud, repeated like a prayer wheel, convinced the majority of non-expert and therefore vulnerable decision-makers in the legislature of this mantra. A simple example illustrates the perfidious deception that has almost destroyed a German technological paradiscipline.

A hiker undertakes an excursion with a length of 6 kilometres. The first kilometre is on level ground. For the second kilometre, the path climbs steadily for 10 metres. On the third kilometre the gradient is a steady 20 metres, on the fourth kilometre 30 metres, on the fifth 40 metres and on kilometre 6 the path climbs 50 metres. The gradient therefore becomes steeper and steeper. In total, the hiker covers an altitude difference of 150 metres. The average gradient is 25 metres per kilometre, resulting from 150 metres over 6 kilometres.
After a snack and a beer, the hiker now walks back 100 metres. By how many metres is his altitude reduced? If you take the average gradient of 25 metres per kilometre, he should have lost exactly 2.5 metres in height after 100 metres of the return journey. In reality, however, he loses 5 metres in altitude, i.e. twice as much. The difference between the average gradient (mean value of 25 metres/km) and the marginal gradient (marginal value of 50 metres/km) is obvious. The mean value (25m/km) alone does not allow a mathematically correct solution.

This example can be directly transferred to the German electricity system. The distance travelled by the hiker can be compared with the electrical energy required by the German electricity system. The gradient of the hiking trail is comparable to the CO2 footprint of the energy sources required. If, for example, the electrical energy demand in today's Germany were at a pre-industrial level and therefore extremely low (e.g. 1 kWh), the so-called regenerative energies, such as hydropower, photovoltaics and wind power, would require an extremely low gradient of, for example, 50 gr O2/kWh. The index ä contains equivalent emission components such as CH4 or N2O, which are converted to CO2.

The more the amount of electrical energy required increases, in analogy to the hiking trail that continues, the more the gradient increases. The addition of lignite-fired power plants ultimately results in a gradient of around 1100 gr CO2/kWh. With a typical German electricity demand of around 600 TWh in Germany, i.e. 600,000,000,000 kWh, fossil-fuelled power plants are in use almost continuously. Just as the total height of a hike is 150 metres after covering a distance of 6 kilometres, the Climate Protection Act for Germany gives a total height of 257 million tonnes of CO2ä in 2022 for the energy sector. This corresponds to an average value of 427 gr CO2/kWh. The Federal Environment Agency gives a comparable value of 434 gr CO2/kWh.

The following question is crucial for correctly balancing the CO2 emissions generated by electrical consumption: "How big is the impact on emissions if you have one less electrical consumer connected to the grid?" Comparable to the return journey of the hike, the saving of 1 kWh of electrical energy does not mean the saving according to the average value of 427g CO2ä. This value is just as incorrect as the above altitude difference calculation of 2.5 metres per 100 metres at the start of the return journey. Rather, the reduced CO2ä emissions would be 1100g, for example, if a lignite-fired power plant had been connected to the grid the entire time and this was no longer needed when a consumer was switched off.

The discrepancy of 427g to 1100g is smaller in reality for the German electricity grid with gas and hard coal shares. In Germany, a factor of 2 is a good approximation between the mean value and real emissions according to the marginal approach. A physical reason for the underestimation of real emissions in the mean value approach is obvious: wind and solar power continue to make an insufficient contribution, quite independently of the number of electrical consumers. The wind does not blow any less when a consumer is switched off and the sun does not shine any brighter when it is switched on.

The word "balance sheet fraud" should be chosen because the actual CO2 emissions are significantly higher and have to be paid for by society via the CO2 price. Future expenditure is thus concealed.
According to the latest VDI balance sheet analysis on the CO2 emissions of various drive concepts, taking into account the production volumes, a diesel vehicle causes total emissions of 34.1 tonnes of CO2 after 200,000 kilometres in motorway operation. Using the mean value approach, which misrepresents reality, a battery-powered vehicle would produce far too low a figure of 27.5 tonnes of CO2. Using the mathematically correct marginal approach results in 40.8 tonnes of CO2, whereby other favourable assumptions such as achieving the target of the failed "Climate-neutral Germany 2045" strategy, avoiding charging predominantly at night or not using vehicle heating were included in this cross-comparison.

At all times during vehicle operation, the emissions of the diesel vehicle are therefore lower than the emissions of comparable electric vehicles.

Fortunately, there are increasing signs that politicians have seen through the gigantic balance sheet fraud. There is a chance that after the misguided energy turnaround, at least the mobility turnaround will not completely drive the cart into the wall. An alternative to pure electromobility must be made possible, otherwise all credibility will be lost and our competitiveness completely pulverised.