Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfish
^ Which is why Ukraine should strike right into the heart of the russian Rodina.
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^ With what...???
Colonel Reisner, whom I still appreciate for his sober, cold-blooded realistic assessment, was ion RBB and expressed his opinion of that the Ukraine ahs been trappoed in a war of attrition nin the beast, solowly loosing to Russia, and that the Eastern front is really not working well for the,m but quite wel for the Russians. The Russians advance. He also detected a chnage in Western moral that causes it to slowly turn away form Ukraine. I prediced lasta autumn that this would happen sooner or later in the secondhalf of this year - and the earlier the longer one has to wait for Ukrainian successes.
To be honest I think we currently witness a phase that amounts to a preliminary decision for the outcome of the war. The offensive is simply not igniting. And it is losing the war for Ukraine in the sense that ultimately Russia will be able to keep large parts of the conquered territories and the Ukrainian economy will have suffered absolutely devastating damage from which the country will not recover for generations. There are calculations that show that Ukraine will lose a quarter of its population to death and emigration. A quarter! In an already overaged society.
And has anyone looked at the figures of Ukraine's public finances in recent times? Devastating. Absolutely hopeless.
Frankly, I am increasingly inclined to think that Ukraine would lose the war even if it managed to expel all Russians from all occupied territories. Its financial and demographic backbone in the long run is either already broken - or about to be.
Russia (not Putin- Russia!) will not let up. And the West will not deliver and will not do what is needed: it cannot, and it will not. Ukraine is dependent on the West, for better or worse. Washington's interests are not Kyiv's. They never have been.
Nobody wants to hear this, the show of illusions must go on. But I stick to it nevertheless.
3-4 brigades still held back, but their artillery deployed already. I increasingly think these do not matter, due to the terrain. It mercilessly favours the Russians in their role, favours their chosen style in this battle: artillery, missiles, gunships, CAS. Little to no cover for the advancing Ukrainians and mechanised forces. Too few mine clearing and bridging equipment (which to identify and kill the russians apparently have become cunning experts). Mines, artillery delivered mines where yesterday there have been none.