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Old 01-24-18, 09:53 AM   #198
Armistead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
Problem there is that needed structural reforms do not get carried out, Trump is not working on profound structures, but on symptoms. The effects therefore I expect to last not for too long. Reagan did the same, and had medium range benefits. Ater them ending, the state debts went way up. Also, the dollar is too weak compared to what the stock market values claim to indicate, which means that Amerina money by Apple may return to the US, but porivate investors moneya is being exported form the Us onto other stockmarkets, currently Europe, however strange that seerms to be. This is a vicious circle,. since it will klure more and more mnoney out of the Americna market, which then will shrink demand in the US.

I predict Trumponomics will party for two years, not longer.

And this, more fundamental cnsideration. Does anyone seriously belioeve that the real world material value of proucing industries and economies can rais ein in total values within one year by 20, 30, 40%...? Does anyone seriously believe a company that produces nothing, like facebook, seriously is worth dozens of billions of bucks...? Finally, the biog four, Micosoft, Google, Apple, buy off competitors, and do so just to remove them from the competition. We are talking about widenngn de facto monopolies and dependencies. Does anyone seriously believe there will be no mid- to long-term punishment from doing so?

One should never assess the state of an economy by the stockmarket graoh alone. Many famous and good stock traders do not look at such graphs even once, not for a single company, not for a whole economy system. Gamblers do that, hoping to get away with their bets. And some will. Myself, I place bets only with money I have in excess, I do not bet with money that I depend on.

Nothing new under the sun - expect what already has been fogotten. Although it is just one and a half decade ago...
I think with congress about the best you can get is to work on symptoms, but I fear while we see some big short term gains, unless congress and Trump start dealing with the realistic cures, obvious all this isn't going to hold much longer than one term. Course, treating symptoms is usually the first step, see if actual cure fixes come later down the pike, but I don't think so, not with our congress. I think for those of us that invest in the stock market, the higher it goes, the more I think when should I sell or reinvest safer places..
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