[Rockstar]

1. Massive Israeli intelligence failure. The last time Israel was blind sided this badly was the '73 war. Though we should note Israel came out on top in that conflict 50 years ago.

2. The scope of this infiltration attack indicates a huge level of planning and preparation spanning months or years. Which underscores point #1.

3. The level of brutality already involved; confirmed executions of Israeli soldiers and civilians, parading the bodies of slain IDF personnel (including 1 female soldier), indiscriminate killing of Israeli civilians, etc will help set the tone for what follows.

4. Israeli declaration of war by the PM gives some indication of what we can expect from Israel by way of response. Also indicates the seriousness with which the government regards this attack/invasion. As does the IDF moving to a war footing and immediately recalling reserves.

5. Expect a significant degree of rally around the flag following this. Internal disputes will be put on the back burner for the time being. This is good news for Bibi.

6. The Israeli left's political influence will likely take a serious beating given their long standing conciliatory (by comparison) stance towards the Palestinians. Again, good news for the current center-right governing coalition.

7. Given the widespread support for the Palestinians being voiced by various Arab governments in the region - the progress of the Abraham Accords has suffered significant damage. How much remains to be seen.

8. I expect a significant Israeli response. Whatever it looks like, it will open with the air campaign we're already seeing the beginnings of. I currently regard future ground operations into Gaza by the IDF as highly likely.

9. While Iran supports numerous proxies & militias in the region, including Hamas & Hezbollah, and has openly praised this attack, it's not yet clear how involved Tehran is prepared to be. Some of their official rhetoric has been bellicose. What Hezbollah chooses to do in over the next few days or weeks may provide insight.

10. Which way Hezbollah jumps will have a major impact. Their involvement would create a two front problem for Israel and bring a significant number of additional enemy forces into the fight.

11. Several Arab nations, including Egypt, have made what could be construed as threats against Israel if the IDF were to launch punitive operations against Gaza in ways they deem disproportionate. Whether this is merely rhetoric or a genuine warning remains to be seen. From some nations, like Egypt, it's a threat Israel must take seriously.

hat tip: Patrick Fox