Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
Kapitan,
I think China will fiorts need to break the "chain of islands" that contian it, with Taiwan being the lock keeping the chain locked, before they can seriously consider to operate a gobal fleet. All thos eislands currently are held by the US or allies by the US. Thats why I think the regional war will come before the stage of a globally seafaring Chinese fleet. And so I give concerns about that regional conflict priority for the time being. Not before that question has been asnwerd oine way or the other, the quesiton of a golobally navigating Chinese war navy nmeeds to be answered. Right now, gopobally the US wpuld run the Chiens efleet into the bottom of the sea. Globally. Regionally, at Chinese homeland - that is somehtign diferent, and China more and more clearly decides which colours will be played this round. The last summit between that Chiense and American delegation the video mentions, was a disgrace for the US, an open and unhidden gauntlet thrown at Blinken's face. I recall when I saw the news reporting it, and I thought "Damn."
The Chinese do not just want to play.
I give the US the advantage in training, combat experience, and leadership. But i think the chinese have learned from the third Vietnam war. They had high losses, yes, still delivered Vietnam a punishment, showing it its place. That shows that they can see a war through even if it runs not well for them. Its long time ago now, and they have moved on from there, no doubt. And I cannot see that their military is as corrupt as the Russian military obviously is. So the money they spend on it most likely has been much better used than it was used in Russia. Also, they spend more. Much more. Their military buildup over the past 20, 30 years, was breathtaking.
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China realistically can win a war without firing a shot, and simply just use trade and this looks like the angle they are going for right now.
Like the soviets they know they cant compete platform for platform on the world stage or deploy globally like the USA, but what they do have is a network where by a lot of economies are reliant on them.
This includes European and American economies, how has the cost of living and prices done since sanctions on Russia?
Now imagine we put the same sanctions on China or China embargos us that cost of living will double if not triple, inflation will go through the roof.
Take a look at what happened when the OPEC countries cut off oil to the west in the 70s.
With so much now being produced in China it makes you wonder if the USA would be able to claw everything back in a short space of time, Id doubt it.
If you look at the list I put up of their naval units you can see the type of navy they are creating, its what we would call sea denial, they are focusing on the regional area right now.
Taiwan will be in that mix, they have enough landing ships and amphibs to go for it now and overwhelm the forces on Taiwan.
But I think they are stopping and looking at just what's going on in Ukraine, western weapons are performing well and soviet / Russian equipment with its man power and also tactics are not.
And don't forget China is largely based on a quasi soviet model.
Chinese can be corrupt probably no where near the scale of the soviet union or Russia, and to be frank the USA can also be corrupt.
The USA logistical network isn't exactly efficient, its no where near many European countries and that can stifle an economy, China is also not near the top of the list they have a lot of inefficiencies too.
but while that is said if you build a lot of ships at roughly the same time you come to a big problem, those ships are going to have to be maintained and if you launch 10 ships the same year there going to need maintenance at the same time it causes a shipyard problem especially if your still building.
Guess which country is already suffering from that problem.
Overall training and experience I have to hand that to the west like Russia Chinas military is predominantly conscript, yes you may have 2.2million in the army however as has been shown a small group of professional soldiers who are skilled and combat hardened can over come the numbers issue.
The Falkland's showed that one clearly, so when Whang Doe sees a dozen of his friends killed is he going to want to carry on? I don't think so.
Having been to China they grow fast they have started adopting a westernized mentality, Shenzhen is an area that made my jaw drop in 5 years the city went from nothing to 3 million with major high rise buildings and is now one of the tech centers of China.
If they lost it due to missile or bombing attacks then I think the will of the people would eventually come forward in overthrowing Xi Ping.
The average Chinese person doesn't want war just like the average Russian, so even with surpression of news and control of the media would the Chinese stomach heavy losses? I would say yes more than the west but eventually it would outrage them, whats more the key would be who started it, the mood would be different if the USA started it and not China.
Times have changed and in some ways for the better.