After several institutes and economic "sages" predicted a steep drop in economic growth in Germany for 2019, even negative growth, the German government now also almost halves its outlook, from a growth of 1.8% in autumn to now 1.0%. Since a government usually tries to nice-wash unwanted numbers and exaggerates wanted numers, its quite safe to assume that internally they expect even worse.
The analysis of international observers is much less forgiving, and expects negative growth
https://www.businessinsider.de/germa...19-1?r=US&IR=T
In last quarter 2018, the German economy already saw a drop of 1.9%
https://www.businessinsider.de/germa...19-1?r=US&IR=T
The second article says the numers were so bad that their trustwoirthiness are pout in dohzbt by some - but I recall that in general the same down trend was reported by German media already after the christmas days. The German economy is stuttering since first quarter last year already.
Quote:
"Even if order books and backlogs of work still look good, Germany likely flirted with a technical recession in H2. We have revised our Q4 GDP forecast to 0.0%." — Daniel Harenberg of Oxford Economics.
"The decline was broad-based across sectors, with no bright spots: manufacturing fell by 1.8% m-o-m with the consumer goods sector once again being the major drag (-4.1% m-o-m vs. -3.3% in Oct.) ... Today’s data were both bad and unexpected. A technical recession in German industry now seems likely." — Stefan Schilbe of HSBC.
"Germany likely was in recession in H2 2018 ... Yesterday’s manufacturing data in Germany provided alarming evidence of a much more severe slowdown in the second half of last year than economists had initially expected. Industrial production plunged 1.9% month-to-month in November, driving the year-over-year rate down to a decade-low of -4.6%. The headline was hit by a perfect storm across all sectors." — analyst Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macreconomics.
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Italy and France also are in growing troubles.