Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorshkov
I am afraid "better sources" about latest nuclear subs are top secret. That is why we have to stick on indirect data and make some realistic estimates basing on many factors. Taking all that into account I think Russian shipbuilding industry is now finished once and for all. Read Russian military press if you speak Russian. Often very interesting data can be found there. Expect no Russian Seawolfs, buddy. 
Anyway the basic trend is clear: Russkies go down while Chinese go up. In the near future Russia will become weapon importer, not exporter - exactly opposite as China. Can you believe that? Twenty years ago this county was able to produce almost all kinds of known weapons itself...  |
Of course the best sources are top secret, that's why we have to go by the best data out in public and estimate the rest based on that data!
Regarding the Chinese and Russians, that is an interesting development. The Chinese are still decades behind the Russians in submarine manufacturing, but they'll catch up pretty quickly once they decide to make it a priority. It's amazing to see how quickly they've developed their ASUW capabilities and, more recently, their AAW systems. They do an excellent job reverse engineering Western and Russian designs while adding their own adaptations in the process.
I hadn't really considered whether the Russians would need to start importing, but I think you're right. Shipbuilding at a minimum is in shambles, and any defense industry in general needs consistent spending to keep the factories in shape, which means the whole Russian defense industry is probably equally screwed. That is, unless their export sectors can keep parts of their industry alive, even if the Russian military themselves can't afford the equipment. Flanker exports seem to be doing well, along with several missile designs.