[Onkel Neal]

http://www.computerworld.com/article...indows-10.html

Who would have thunk, the personal computer is becoming obsolete

Three years ago, inventories surged as PC makers cranked out devices -- 85 million in the second quarter of 2012, 88 million in the third -- figuring that Windows 8 was going to be a big hit and juice sales. That didn't happen.

"There were a lot of [retail and distribution] customers buying additional inventory and promoting Windows 8," Loverde said. "The [negative] impact on inventory is more substantial this time, and everyone is taking a wait-and-see approach, thinking that they'll make decisions in the second half of the year."

Some of the nervousness on the part of computer makers revolves around the upgrade offer Microsoft will extend to all consumers and many businesses with existing PCs running Windows 7 or Windows 8.1. Starting July 29, Microsoft will give those customers a free upgrade to Windows 10. The deal will expire a year later, on July 29, 2016.

"It's even riskier when the market is declining," Loverde said of carrying large inventories.

And the PC business has been in decline, and will continue to contract.

IDC has held to its prediction that for 2015, global PC shipments will be down 6.2% from last year's 308 million, or to around 289 million. (That may change to an even more depressing number; Loverde said IDC had not yet adjusted the figure to account for the worse-than-expected second quarter.) In 2016, the industry will shrink by another 2%.