A 9500 isnt really going to meet your needs for the year though. 20fps is considered just inside the "playable" range. Anythingless than a 9600 is going to be a problem for you. There is a big jump between the 9500 and 9600 - the 9500 is a tweaked 94xx class chip. Where the 9600 is the next higher class. Just think this way - I use a x1650 (dx9 card) still - and one of those is on TD for more than the cost of the 9500 your looking at. You may get dx10 out of it - but at what cost?
TD didnt have any decent 9600's under 100 by EVGA, so if you look at a different manufacturer then try this one. Its a 9800GT for under a benny.
http://www.tigerdirect.com/applicati...09965&CatId=28 Has a lifetime warranty - though I have heard good and bad about XFX cards. Mostly good though.
No question it would be enough to carry you through, and you can always SLI it in the next pc for cheap (the cost in a year will be really sweet!) while getting performance close to way more expensive cards. With the cost now, and the cost of a similiar card in a year - your looking then at probably 50 bucks or less, your going to get performance that will equal a $400 card now. Its really a choice of do you want to budget for an expensive vid card when you do your next full build. Just make sure if you do this you get a mb that supports SLI.
Thats one great thing about SLI/Crossfire - it allows you to get good midrange cards at cheap and use them together to get high end performance.