Quote:
Originally Posted by mapuc
I agree on every point in what you wrote.
They are fighting for our freedom
There are voices who demands a stop for military aid-'cause it expand the suffering for the civilians in Ukraine.
(Said to one them-the allied should have done the same during WWII. stop fighting the nazis to prevent further suffering for the Danes)
Markus
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I always was with Colonel Reisner on this. Either you give the Ukraine what it needs to win, or you don't - but then you just extend the war and prevent Ukraine from winning it, and that begs the question what your motive then is. I said early last year already that the americans do not really care for a free Ukraine, for them the country still is dubious and suspicous - they want to maximise damage to Russia (="boiling the frog"), at the cost of Ukraine, so that when they turn to the Pacific, Russia is too weak to start something big in America's European rear area. What Europe's motive is, remains a bit speculative, and there might be severla rivalling ones, since the EU doe snto speak with one voice, but I think it is reasonable to assume they seek a moral alibi allowing them to return to business as usual without loosing their face over having let Ukraine down - and neither Berlin nor Paris actually want Ukraine to join NATO or the EU any time soon, since this would mean a loss of influence for both Western capitals, and a shift of the balance of power towards the East, to Warsaw and Kyiv.
Thereby Reisner correctly concludes that from a moral standpoint, if you do not even intend to win the war for Ukraine, and do not do what is needed to win the war, then you should negotiate a deal of any kind because else you just sacrifice the civilians and the industrial foundation of the country, and for nothing. That conclusion then is just logical. Either you fight, or you don't
I would prefer the West would have opted for full and determined military support, no limits, no systems a taboo, to make sure Ukraine wins militarily by throwing Russia out early on. But early on Zelensky did not even listen to American warnings that Russia would attack, while Bubble-Olaf and Macronman believed lies Putin told them both face to face less than 48 hours before the attack.
Part fo the triuth also is that Eurpople alone, withot the US, does not have the military power to take on Russia. Its about numbers, and availability of numbers. Europe'S military status is a mess.
Ukraine has lost the momentum, the Russians forced them to give up where the ukrainians were better: mobile warfare, and to get deadlocked in where russia is able to slowly win the war: trench warfare and war of attrition. Russia can afford its losses (those saying the oppposite still underestimate Russia), Ukraine increasingly cannot. It would have been of ultimate importance to
win the war early on, because I predicted last year that in Q3 and Q4 this year the psychological motivation of Western states and especially Westenr publics to continue with supporting ukriane would wane. And that is what happens now, no matter what the government press writes and prints. Ukraine can no longer hope to boost support with Western publics, it cannot even hope to maintain the current level. From here on it lives on battery, and the battery slowly drains, so to speak. The situasiton in America doe snot make it any more promising for them next year.
And Russia knows that. They will not give up, just hang on to it, more they must not do. Time is on their side.
I know that some do not like to see it this way, but denying reality does not win you wars. Wishful thinking does not do anything for you. Ukraine has not yet lost - but as things now stand, it is slowly loosing. Zalushnji knows that, thats why he raised his voice, as a soldier, in the Economist recently. He said what the West must provide to still throw the rudder around. I just doubt that the West will do it. That is due to Israel-Hamas, and a lot of other egoistic reasons. And Russia will look for other possibilities to distract Western attention further and to redirect Western support from Ukraine elsewhere.
You do not win wars by wishful thinking, by denying realities you do not like. I say and imply that since many months.