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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would leave the island completely devastated, resulting in thousands of deaths among the Chinese, American, Taiwanese and Japanese armies. Moreover, the conflict would have no winner: both the Chinese and American navies would come out of the confrontation badly battered. This is according to a series of large-scale war simulations by a U.S. think tank. The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) institute says it has spent the past few months creating the largest ever series of war games of a possible conflict between China on the one hand and Taiwan and its American and Japanese allies on the other. This involved simulating no less than 24 scenarios of a Chinese invasion of the island in 2026. The results will be officially presented later today, but news channel CNN says it has already been able to see the results. Just about all the scenarios show that the Chinese attack attempt would fail and take a particularly high military toll on all warring parties. Even if the United States emerged victorious, its military would come out as violated as the defeated Chinese army.


Live; January 9, 2023, at 8:00 PM GMT+1

At least two American aircraft carriers would be left at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, as would 10 to 20 other ships. "The United States and Japan combined would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of military personnel. Such losses would damage American dominance on the world stage for many years," the report said. Some 3,200 US military personnel could be killed defending Taiwan's territorial integrity in three weeks. On the other hand, China would also suffer heavy losses, and the invasion would fail and leave China's modern navy "in ruins." "The backbone of its amphibious force is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are captured." The report assumes 10,000 Chinese military personnel will be killed, 155 combat aircraft lost and 138 ships sunk. So the Chinese toll would be higher than the American one, yet this could also be just a pyrrhic victory for the U.S., "with a higher toll than 'defeated' China in the long run."

For the 24-million-strong island itself, a Chinese invasion would obviously have the greatest impact. "The Taiwanese army would not be destroyed, but it would be largely defeated. It would have to defend a damaged economy without electricity and basic services." About 3,500 Taiwanese soldiers would die, and all 26 frigates and destroyers would sink to the bottom of the sea. Finally, Japan would lose more than 100 fighter planes and 26 ships. Relations between China and Taiwan have been on edge again since then-U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island last year. That visit indicated an implicit recognition of Taiwan's independence, which aroused great anger in China. The People's Republic of China considers Taiwan - which calls itself the only official "Republic of China" - a renegade province and integral part of its territory, the so-called One China principle that says there is only one China in the world. While the United States does recognize the Chinese position, as its main ally, it is also legally obligated to provide military support to Taiwan to preserve its independence.

Whether it will ever actually come to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, only Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to know. He does not explicitly rule out the scenario, but many experts call it unlikely at this point. "The Chinese summit could also implement a strategy of diplomatic isolation, operations under the radar and economic strangulation against Taiwan," the CSIS report sounds. The experts also point out that Taiwan's geographical position does not allow for an "Ukraine scenario," referring to how the West is gradually providing that country with resources and weapons to defend itself. "Once the war starts, it would be impossible to send arms and supplies to Taiwan. Whatever Taiwan will try to defend itself with, it will only be possible with material that is already there at that time."