[Jimbuna]

A simple analysis by Laura Kuenssberg.

A straight vote on the deal today seems unlikely because the government didn't pull the vote on Saturday - they walked away from it. So, theoretically, the Commons did give a view on the issue, and it can't be asked to give a different one today - let's see.

The government is desperate to have a vote on the whole shebang as soon as possible to show momentum, before getting into days of scrutiny where MPs will try to make changes to the deal.

That's not just because they are worried about losing more votes - this government has barely won any - but because if MPs make any major changes to the legislation, then it might mean PM has to go back to EU and ask for a different deal - you can imagine how much No 10 wants that.

It also, of course, eats up time, making it harder and harder as the hours tick by for the government to be able to stick to the 31 October deadline - still not impossible, but looking increasingly unlikely.

If the WAB ends up not getting through or being changed, there is very little chance the government will be able to avoid a delay, so the smart bet is that No 10 will just go back to pushing very hard for an election.

Once a delay is agreed, it will be hard for opposition parties to block one - lots of individual MPs don't want it, but the government is prepared to hold a vote of no confidence in itself, or go for a simple majority vote if they can't get it through under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act's two-thirds bar.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50117284

So....1530 it is then.