[Skybird]

Hard to believe it, but they really seem to be determined to walk straight into th trap.

In case of crime, it is good to ask who benefits from it, and who has what motive.

Assad:

may think the West is weak and Obama is a mouth hero, but must nevertheless be in knowledge (fed by his advisors) about the US military's capabilities. He knew that there is the risk that the US will get engaged against himself if he steps over that famous red line.

And why should he want to do that, now, at this time? The war is running well for him. The Syrian army is in attack mode since months, with help by Hezbollah, Iran, and deliveries received from Russia, North Korea, and verbally supported (if not more?) by China. A lot of important strategic key places have been recaptured, the rebels are running in many places.

He also had the weapon inspectors under his nose, they have been in the country to investigate three other places when the incident now leading to this hype was staged by somebody.

Conclusion:

Assad has no interest to launch a massive chemical attack right now. He has no military or other need to so so. The timing speaks against it. A lot of risk is involved. He can get no compensation for the costs of it. In other words: he has had nothing to win from it now. He has no motive for it right now. Everything speaks against it. Assad is cold-blooded, ruthless and unscrupulous - stupid or insane he is not. At least not that we know

The opposition: Al Quaeda, terrorists, rebels, extremists, jihadists:

are in the defense, and have been hunted around in the recent weeks, been driven out of many strongholds they had taken before. Their situation doe snot allow to achieve military progress currently. They have only to win from chemical attacks taking place and claimed to have been ordered by Assad: a wavering, hesitant West could come to their support. They have no scruples to sacrifice civilians for their cause, as have the extremists of many factions in the ME have demonstrated over the years. The greater the horror being called out in the headlines of the world's newspapers, the better for them. The greater the bloodshed, the louder the call becomes to run to their rescue and assist them.

The timing of the attack is highly suspicious. The inspectors already in the country to examine three other locations - and right then during their visit this latest attack takes place!? How nice, timing could not have been any better!

Conclusion:

the rebels have only to win from staging a gas attack and claiming it to have been ordered by Assad. No risk for their cause is involved, the worst that could happen is that nothing happens and nobody reacts. Its a free bidding round for them.

Approaching this with reason and logic only, comparing the motives and situations of both sides, necessarily recommends the conclusion that the massacre has been conducted by the rebels.

In other words, NATO is about to embark on military assistance for a gang of medieval barbarians, West-hating jihadists, murderers not any better than Assad and Hezbollah are, and Al Queda-liking terrorists. Great service for NATO's reputation! Iran must love it.

The Russians probably see it right. Like it or not: they probably see it right.

The current inspectors' mission is only to examine whether or not a chemical attack took place. Trying to clear who conducted the attack if it was one, is not part of there mission. They also have not the time and options to do that. It is beyond their mandate.

Nobody so far has shown evidence for the claim that it was Assad. Britain, France and the US only presented claims so far. Modern history shows that it is imperative to not just trust mere American claims when it comes to excusing wars.

I think the rebels did it.

The US, Britain and maybe France once again walk straight into the giant trap that is called the Middle East. Especially the US seem to have a natural, inbred immunity to learning about the ME. And the British? Once again run and try to find the stick that their master has thrown. Must be great to be a poodle, considering how passionately they fill that role time and again. France cooks its own supper. It's about widening francophone influence and status around the Islamic mediterranean theatre. It's a long-lasting geostrategic ambition of theirs, to somehow compensate for their economic inferiority to Germany. Holland's vision of supersocialism is falling apart under the pressure of financial realities in France. Distracting a displeased public by running an external war is a proven tactic for desperate politicians, since eons.