Speculations

We all, I did and still do, expect it will be Israel who will strike first.

Have we forgot USA- It should not surprise me if it's USA who make this preemptive strike and not Israel.

We have to look at the aftermath if Israel do blow-up things in Iran.
Of course an Iranian response to such an attack could very well be a massive missilstrike on Israel.

Markus

The Israelis have made threats that they were preparing to take action against Iran if necessary, the hardliners are upset that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett seemed to acquiesce to Biden's promises to do something about Iran.

I don't know if the Israelis can do anything, if not espionage. I don't see how they can doing anything without a US supplied bunker busting bomb. I doubt they would consider a nuclear first strike unless they had hard intelligence that Iran was about to shoot a nuclear cruise missile at Tel Aviv.

Had some thoughts-If Israel use their air force to strike in Iran I guess their fly path will go through Egypt and Saudi-Arabia. This is a huge detour, that's why I'm convince they will employ special forces/agent from the sub/fregats

I still have USA as an option-They have the mean and resurses to smash the Iranian nuclear program back to scratch.

If there's a strike against Iran it will come soon, if ever.
How big is the chance that there's a possibility in which Israel, USA and other countries in the area allow Iran to have nukes

Markus

I think you might need a map.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...udi-Arabia.png

Thank you.

I do not know where Jordan stands when it comes to Iran-Friend or foe ?

South Iran via Saudi-Arabia and North Iran via Turkey

Markus

Iran's nuclear program, prospects of Israeli action

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9bbfC5YTnw

I do not dare to speculate in what would happen in the region if Israel attack Iran.

One thing is for sure..Iran will retaliate
Syria will they attack Israel ?
Lebanon-What will they do ?
Gaza-Expect a rise in rocket and mortar launch against Israel

Markus

REVEALED: How Iran's top nuclear scientist was assassinated by a killer robot machine gun kitted out with AI that allowed sniper thousands of miles away to fire 15 bullets after disguised spy car had pinpointed his location

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/09...55_636x620.jpg

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...kitted-AI.html

The traditional military means of Israel regarding Iran are more limited than they want the world to believe. Distances, the hardening of Iranian targets, and the limited availability of Israeli platforms speak are the reasons.
Iran meanwhile has driven its key research facility deeper and deeper under that damn mountain of theirs. I doubt it can be reached by conventional ammunitions delivered by missile or aircraft anymore. It needs a truck driving an according payload into the base.


Israel most likely is unable to militarily act on its own without falling back to using nukes or being massively, very massively assisted by the US. Iran is not the Lebanon, or close-by Egypt. Its distant away, and it is huge. It can be reached by Israel in a dare-devil air operation and many mid-air refuelings and permits to use foreign air space and such. But I doubt any such attack can have any signficant effect on installations of their njuclear program. Its more symbolic if such an attack woudl take place.

Didn't expect an assassin on a top scientist.

I did expect some undercover operation like blowing up important nuclear facilities.

Markus

While watching the video Otto Harkaman posted on this page I was wondering:
Can Israel fight a long time war with Iran ?
Do Israel have enough to fight Iran for more than 2-4 years?
Because I'm convinced a war between these two will be a long lived story

Markus

They already are at war, since decades.


A conventional military full blown exchange: it depends how fast their factories can produce long range missiles. Becasue thats what sduch a long war will be fought with, necessarily. Their navies and air forces? No.



With Iran having the advantage to have launching pads right on Israel's borders. And plenty of angry young proxy warriors in these, too.

By Proxy yes But I meant head to head

Edit
We must not forget Saudi-Arabia.
They are also fighting Iran by proxy in Yemen.
End edit

Markus

That happened back last November, the Iranians said he had been assassinated by a robot gun but people scoffed at the time and the Media was even more focused about Trump.

They have been sniping at one another for years. Obviously Israel can't afford a long war of attrition, not sure the Iranian government could sustain one either without being overthrown.

I'm not sure Iran would immediately use a nuclear bomb if they obtained one. Probably act more like North Korea and just be a threatening simmering kettle to get sanctions reduced. Slowly extend its influence using proxies like Pakistan.

I guess eventually the end of China's Belt and Road tentacle through Afghanistan?

I did not read the article. The reason to why I thought it had happened recently was because the first thing I saw when I opened FB was news from my newsfeed and the same picture and words you had posted here

So that's the reason why.

I seem to recall what an Israeli once said.
Something about fear of Iran smugling a little nuke to Lebanon and into Israel.

Markus