Ukrainian media reports say the commander responsible for the defence of the northeastern Kharkiv front, General Yuriy Halushkin, has been replaced by General Mykhaylo Drapatiy. And possible corruption will also cause this happens in any army. For the "if" Russia needs 3 times as many personnel with its equipment to take Ukraine for the whole Kharkiv oblast they would need over, 100000 with its equipment that does Russia not have and will not get they also have problems with recruiting personnel and their production is more refurbish/repair hardly any new equipment rolls on the plains of Ukraine.

The Russian military began 2023 with a highly disorganised force in Ukraine, comprising approximately 360,000 troops. By the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive in June 2023, this had risen to 410,000 troops and was becoming more organised. Over the summer of 2023, Russia established training regiments along the border and in the occupied territories and, following the mutiny of Wagner forces, endeavoured to standardise its units, breaking down the previous trend towards private armies. By the beginning of 2024, the Russian Operational Group of Forces in the occupied territories comprised 470,000 troops. With this army they only gained a couple of hundreds of square kilometres' terrain I do not see them gain more terrain. These coming months will be hard for Ukraine but if they can hold this is the last Russian big offensive for a very long time.

I have this feeling in which Putin will, after got another 6 year, order general mobilization and perhaps he will change the way he talk about the war in Ukraine from special operation to war in Ukraine and declare war on the country.

Markus

Putin talks this yada yada so he can stop this any time he wants without losing face, he never talked about a goal so if It's time he thinks it is over he can say we won. General mobilization would mean Putin needs to train and equip this new army if he does it like in the past it will not work in WWII Stalin could send millions and with the help of the US they could win. Putin is no Stalin how hard he tries and Russia is not the USSR it has no millions to send, and it does not have the gulag of millions in the age to fight and produce. It is short of over 5 million of labour force, how can he equip that kinda army and I doubt Moscow and St Petersburg will comply if they are drafted.

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

The Russians are pursuing three objectives with the invasion of troops in the north of Kharkiv. The first is an attempt by the Russians to form a kind of buffer zone. This follows from the increasing number of attacks on Russian towns near the border, such as Belgorod. (...)

Secondly, Russia has extended the front line by another 200 kilometres. This puts Ukraine under pressure, as it now has to deploy its precious reserves not only in the Donbass, but now also north of Kharkiv. This is a tactic of war of attrition: The Russians are tying up the Ukrainians in additional places, making it more difficult for them to manage the entire front.

The third intention is to create a deployment zone for future attacks, a kind of staging area from which the Russians can then theoretically attack in the direction of Kharkiv.
(...)
When the first 180,000 shells arrive from the Czech Republic at the end of June, that will be enough for 30 days if 6,000 shells are fired per day. The Russians, however, fire 20,000 to 25,000 shells a day.

----------------------

It is reported since weeks that Russia assembles a new army group in Russia near the border, that is planned to consit of at least 100,000 men, of wich 60,000 seems to be ready and who have staged the attacks near Kharkiv.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6tT...UkraineMatters

Markus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHJQ...tVeteranReacts

Markus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXDc3SKtUlg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC1g1UFqAGM

Looking in the rearview mirror you could say, you predicted this outcome-Not enough troops, material and not enough weapons to open a second front and push forward to Kharkiv.

Looking in the crystal ball-You could say, you predict more troops, material and weapons is being transported to their second front-the question would be-Is it enough ?

Markus

I did not predict, if anything is not to predict it is wars and economies you can have more of all but if they are not trained to do it, it fails same with the command they not really have shown anything I believe they can do the job see this video a Russian explain how it works there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKSgzG_7R2A

I used the word "you" as in general. I could however have written it like this
"Looking in the rearview mirror one could say..."

Markus

I wonder if it was Shoigu who authored this latest offensive or his replacement?

https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053


[NZZ] A live map of the war in Ukraine receives more than a billion clicks - even the army uses it every day


Whether in Donbass or Kharkiv - the Deep State Map shows how the situation on the front is changing. Ukrainian patriots are behind the project. This is precisely why they are not only fighting false information from Moscow, but also from Kiev.


When Roman Pohorili and Ruslan Mikula first experimented with a map that depicts wars and conflicts live in 2021, they found it particularly interesting from a technical point of view. But then Russia invaded their home country: Their website DeepStateMap.live became a vital resource, for emergency services and even for the Ukrainian army. Anyone who wants to understand the situation in Donbass - or now that in Kharkiv - can hardly avoid this map. It now has well over a billion hits.


This makes the Deep State Map one of the most frequently used maps of the war in Ukraine. Pohorili and Mikula's team have created an intuitive user interface that presents the most important information almost at a glance: areas occupied by Moscow are pink or orange, liberated territories are green, contested territories are gray. If you want, you can overlay the topography and weather conditions, follow the course of the trenches or see which units are stationed where on the front line.


However, there is one restriction: the Deep State Map only shows Russian positions, not Ukrainian ones. Roman Pohorili does not want to provide the enemy with any useful information. In a Zoom interview with the NZZ, the 24-year-old admits that he is not an objective observer. "It's about our Ukraine, and we are fighting for victory." This means that he sometimes conceals ongoing operations by the Ukrainian military, even if his team knows about them.


However, there are changes every day. With a timeline function, you can follow front shifts back in time at will. Or at least almost: the first six weeks of the war were lost when the site was relaunched. It had initially worked on the basis of Google Maps, but the map was blocked - presumably because the American company got cold feet due to Russian hacker attacks and unresolved liability issues. The authors had to completely reprogram it.


However, Pohorili assures that the visible information is correct. There is no point in concealing Russian conquests and the associated shifts in the front line if this would jeopardize the evacuation of civilians, for example; after all, the Ukrainian Civil Protection is an official partner. The former lawyer is concerned with fundamental issues: "People should have no illusions. They have to face reality." Only if they understand the true situation on the front can they fight the Russians effectively.


Pohorili knows better than most in Ukraine that this situation is difficult. Over a hundred people provide information to the Deep State Map as volunteers. Many serve in the army themselves and are on the front line. The core team, whose size Pohorili does not want to name for security reasons, analyzes videos, news and images. It decides when to update the map.


According to Pohorili, images in particular can be easily checked using open source intelligence (Osint) methods. The analysts compare the location of buildings or streets with satellite images to ensure that the authors' information about the location of a video is correct.

I've always consider this deep state maps to be a reliable source of information and some of the youtubers are using it.

There are those who say it is false propaganda and are not showing the realtime situation in Ukraine.

This was what a friends friend once told me on fb.

Its Ukrainian critical patriots doing these maps. OF COURSE they do not show Ukrainian units.

https://www-bundesheer-at.translate...._x_tr_pto=wapp



With the current production and repair rate of just under 1,000 battle tanks per year, of which 200 are new production and 800 are repairs, Russia is in a position to endure the current loss rate without restrictions for at least another two to three years. As of May 11, 2024, there are 3,005 lost Russian tanks compared to a total of 815 Ukrainian tanks. A ratio of 3.7 : 1.
The military norm requires a ratio of 4:1 in an attack against a prepared opponent. Analysts currently assume that there are around 3,000 Russian main battle tanks deployed in Ukraine. In addition, there are another 400 deployed in the area north of Kharkiv.