Plausible world conflicts

[Deathblow]

Okiedokie, what's already been done:

1. Russian vs US Mutiny pits navies at odds. Good fun and good matchups. The DW bread and butter.
2. China versus US Also been done in good fashion. Only a semiplausible conflict that one can't really see happing in the next 20 years given that both these countries have trillions in economic investments and gain tied up into each other. Nevertheless, its interesting to play, though the battles can be slightly lopsided technology wise.
3. US versus Iran Very, very, very plausible circumstances. Fun to play though the techonology mis-match makes the missions somewhat of a turkey shoot. (except the occasional kilo vs SSN)
4. French vs US FERdeBOER's campaign, fun and enjoyable. :up: :lol: A real plausible conflict? Ha, probably not, but its fun to play around, given that the technology matchup is "reasonably" comparable enough in regards to weapons and platforms.

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Soooooooooo... :hmm: ...What else are plausible conflicts? Meaning, we can actually see them happening without too much of a strecth of the imagination. Lets brainstorm a bit to see what comes up.... what about?...

NorthKorea vs US?
A plausible conflict but the technology mismatch is sooooo lopsided that would it really be any fun to play? Some possible Kilo hunts if NorthKorea were to acquire Kilos... most everything else might just be a turkey shoot.

Europe vs Russia revisited?
Already done in Bills RSR campaign, though not exclusively Europe vs Russia. Maybe plausible as a continuance in the same line of thinking, but with missions on the European coastlines and greater involvements of AI controlled European boats. The Russian side would be straight forward. The European side would have to be seen from the viewpoint of an American ally helping the AI or even a strecthed imagination with the LA as a T-boat and the Kilo as some German Type 212? Too much of a stretch? You decide.

Europe vs US?
What possible unearthly mishap could spark a Europe vs US war? Hard to think of one that's not either 50 years in the future, or so extremely dramatic it represents pure absurdity (George Bush orders the assination of Tony Blair :88) :shifty: :nope: ). Still, it would be a good techology matchup with comparable SSN, SSK, weapons, etc, and could introduce missions to the US coastline, but would be story really make sense?.... maybe as an alternative universe... perhaps an "if the Germans had won" universe?... :hmm:

China vs Japan?
These two countries still hate in other right? Japan has absolutely loathed military conflict ever since the second WW (afaik) so if would take one of the sides acting against their current stance to motivate the conflict (China being stupidly aggressive or Japan reversing its maritime policies over the last 50 years)... but still, Japan has some good naval units that maybe fun to see in action. Perhaps the Chinese side represented as Kilos and Akula's bought from Russia. Still, the problem persist as in the Russia vs Europe with the Japanese side only being represented from an American ally perspective. Still, perhaps if the LA were really a top secret SSN that Japan has never revealed? The FFG as one of the older Japanese ASW destroyers? Again it would take some streching, but if we ever got desperate for scenarios...

Russia vs China?
That would probably be like US versus Canada. Why on earth.....?

US vs Third World Counties?
Attack of the fishing boats! Sweet! But seriously, would there really be any point of trying to script a plot outta this that wouldn't be a total technology mismatch.

Ok, those last two were a bit desperate... what else is plausible?...hmm...I'm running out of ideas. Will keep the list updated if anything good comes up.

db

[Deathblow]

Yep, I'm dry for now. Any of these sound semi-plausible? Any other conflicts I'm missing?

[Kapitan]

US V Iran

US and japan V china india and russia

Britain V france

Back to cold war.

[OneShot]

How bout US vs. Japan, India and Iran (and China).

The following books (from Tom Clancy) come to mind on that ...

- Debt of Honor
- Executive Orders
- The Bear and the Dragon

That might be interesting ...

[Deathblow]

Maybe your on to something OneShot. Making missions based on Novels that are good is a good way to have an already thought out plot, setting, and political scenario.... that is, if the book it good. :)

Bills RSR campaign is certainly a good example of that. Though it may be hard to find other ASW books with as much action as was in RSR. Most of the rest of TC books had less fighting and more survillance, before a climax iirc.

[Kazuaki Shimazaki II]

China vs Japan?
These two countries still hate in other right? Japan has absolutely loathed military conflict ever since the second WW (afaik) so if would take one of the sides acting against their current stance to motivate the conflict (China being stupidly aggressive or Japan reversing its maritime policies over the last 50 years)...

Actually, they have been getting incrementally more assertive (see recent thing with Koreans). Aggressiveness is a long way away if it happens at all, but it is moving in that general direction, and it is enough to raise a few feathers on the Chinese and Koreans.

The FFG as one of the older Japanese ASW destroyers? Again it would take some streching, but if we ever got desperate for scenarios...

You can use the P-3s and SH-60s as is. I suggest you use the FFG as a Hatakaze class destroyer (actually, that's considered an Antiair Escort Vessel). Same Mk13 launcher for SAMs and Harpoon. Both use Gas Turbine propulsion. You don't have an ASROC, but you do have better helos facilities, and it is not like ASROC's that good anyway... For extra realism/challenge, try and restrain yourself from using your TA. For an easier one, either assume they just had an extra TACTASS and just added it onto your boat, or rationalize that you are compensating for the fact the Hatakaze had a bow rather than hull sonar, which is supposed to be slightly more sensitive. All up to you.

Russia vs China?
That would probably be like US versus Canada. Why on earth.....?

Not so much a stretch. Russia might be selling equipment to China, but the two nations aren't really all that trustful of each other. Remember the Sino-Soviet border conflict of '69? It is not even clear what they are fighting for other than over a dispute of a few meters of broken islands (Zhenbao Island, for instance, is a 0.7km^2 area of pretty much nothing). Just have a border conflict that blew out of hand, and you get a war.

[FERdeBOER]

4. French vs US FERdeBOER's campaign, fun and enjoyable. :up: :lol: A real plausible conflict? Ha, probably not, but its fun to play around, given that the technology matchup is "reasonably" comparable enough in regards to weapons and platforms.
db

1st: thanks :up:

2nd: not, not real. I have to admit that my first idea was different: some kind of both countries trying to be the "ruler" of a 3rd world country plenty of natural resources, but without direct comfrontation.
But... the creature lives! and the final campaign is the result.

The major problem I find about creating conflicts is not the world situation itself, but the limited countries avaiable on the game.
Not only about controllable countries, that is a minor problem because you can add a U.S. sub helping an allied navy; the problem resides on the few countries aviable, and those who are, have not the full ships/subs of the real ones.
The Sub Command mod SCX allow long wider possibilities (what happened to DWX??).

I thought on conflict with/against Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, Argentina... Spain vs Morocco, Turkey, Greece... conflics between Pacific countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Korea...

[MaHuJa]

a dispute of a few meters of broken islands (Zhenbao Island, for instance, is a 0.7km^2 area of pretty much nothing).

Maybe it's not the islands themselves, but the naval territory that goes with them.

[MaHuJa]

I think the biggest problem in the "technology equation" may be the thinking that winning the war entails sinking the other nation's military naval assets - ignoring the effect on economics a war at sea can have. The economy is the lifeblood of a nation - and fairly critical to a war effort.

I'll put my suggestions for concrete backstories in italics.



1. Russian vs US Mutiny pits navies at odds. Good fun and good matchups. The DW bread and butter.
What about the US having the mutiny? I know there was a scenario US vs US about this, but it was treating it like only a joke.

(Or both - see supreme ruler 2010 backstory)

3. US versus Iran Very, very, very plausible circumstances. Fun to play though the techonology mis-match makes the missions somewhat of a turkey shoot. (except the occasional kilo vs SSN)

So long as the US resources are in the theater. Real world, they makes sure it always is. But let's say something had them (say, minus one frigate and one tico, plus heloes) drawn away. (India, pakistan going at it?) What would a week or so (before the US is back in sufficient force) of choking oil supplies do? That's the players job to prevent. Versus the whole Iranian navy, with plenty civilians around that need protection. Poor guy.

With western economy in a downturn already, a skirmish between India and Pakistan flared up into something bigger; increasing the economic problems already existing. This conflict, with its potential to go nuclear, caught the attention of most of the world, and the US was the ones best placed to respond. Doing that however, required stripping the region of other forces. When the US arrived with 2 Carriers and a whole lot of other ships, they managed to contain the situation, but while they started with that, Iran decided this was their chance to hurt the US the most. A blockade of all oil-exporting ships (except their own, of course) began, trying to inflate the prices of oil immensely, and bring western economy grinding to an absolute halt.

4. French vs US FERdeBOER's campaign, fun and enjoyable. :up: :lol: A real plausible conflict? Ha, probably not, but its fun to play around, given that the technology matchup is "reasonably" comparable enough in regards to weapons and platforms.

Europe vs US?
What possible unearthly mishap could spark a Europe vs US war? Hard to think of one that's not either 50 years in the future, And therefore the current platforms would likely be outdated - weren't nukesubs supposed to live for 30 years? or so extremely dramatic it represents pure absurdity (George Bush orders the assination of Tony Blair :88) :shifty: :nope: ). Still, it would be a good techology matchup with comparable SSN, SSK, weapons, etc, and could introduce missions to the US coastline, but would be story really make sense?.... maybe as an alternative universe... perhaps an "if the Germans had won" universe?... :hmm:

I don't know what would cause a rift deep enough, other than practice. As for stretch-backgrounds, perhaps the US was "taken over" by the **AAs who don't like consumer-friendly laws enacted (though these may need to be invented?) in the EU? They're allowed to crusade against their own, so why not against foreigners? Oh wait, this could cost the national budget directly, scratch that.


NorthKorea vs US?
A plausible conflict but the technology mismatch is sooooo lopsided that would it really be any fun to play? Some possible Kilo hunts if NorthKorea were to acquire Kilos... most everything else might just be a turkey shoot.

NK is a threat, but that's pretty much "quantity is a quality of its own" ON LAND. The naval part is more like an afterthought, other than as a source of missiles and area for floating airbases. Oh, and, NK has supposedly already been doing commando insertions from sea against the south.

Europe vs Russia revisited?
With the US staying out, or the US getting involved?

Either way, the naval war strategy of the russians in such a conflict would likely be similar to the one the germans used in ww2 - keep US reinforcements from reaching the land battlefields.


even a strecthed imagination with the LA as a T-boat and the Kilo as some German Type 212? Too much of a stretch? You decide.

Been smoking mushrooms or the like lately? :D


China vs Japan?
These two countries still hate in other right? Japan has absolutely loathed military conflict ever since the second WW (afaik)

The occupational regime put in place a constitution essentially forbidding having armed forces to begin with. As the cold war came to be, that was changed into having armed forces but the constitution disallowing their use except for self defense. A couple years back, there was talk about giving provisions for special cases, participating in UN missions or the like.


so if would take one of the sides acting against their current stance to motivate the conflict (China being stupidly aggressive or Japan reversing its maritime policies over the last 50 years)... but still, Japan has some good naval units that maybe fun to see in action
Most of which aren't in DW :dead:
(Though that may be about submarines)

Perhaps the Chinese side represented as Kilos and Akula's bought from Russia.

The subs they have can be bad enough, given proper use. If the Han, too noisy for success against capable ASW assets, (at least in DW) began hit-and-run against shipping to Japan, keeping away from protected convoys (as determined by other intelligence) then it might be a decisive factor.


Still, the problem persist as in the Russia vs Europe with the Japanese side only being represented from an American ally perspective. Still, perhaps if the LA were really a top secret SSN that Japan has never revealed? The FFG as one of the older Japanese ASW destroyers? Again it would take some streching, but if we ever got desperate for scenarios...


In a war against china, the US would probably be just happy at a chance to take part, if they could do so with some claim to legitimacy. Considering what we could call the "china doctrine" (china IS the ones with the greatest chance of becoming a second superpower, an event the US has decided it will not allow)


Russia vs China?
That would probably be like US versus Canada. Why on earth.....?
Except the force disparity between Ru/Ch is much less than US/Ca - unless Canada has been misrepresented in DW? (I think they've been rather dependent on the US, a close ally, for defense)

The rest has been covered by another.

US vs Third World Counties?

You mean... trying to reflect the real world situation in DW? :P

Attack of the fishing boats! Sweet! But seriously, would there really be any point of trying to script a plot outta this that wouldn't be a total technology mismatch.

Again, economics. Such a thing would likely be done through economic means, (all those countries put up a trade embargo with the US) and probably responded to with covert ops (think assassination teams) all over the world. (I mean, the US are experienced at that!)

As such, I suspect seal insertion and recovery missions would provide the majority of mission objectives.



Generally, sea power is usable for only four things:
-Disrupting sea trade
-Ensuring safe passage of troops across water
-Naval bombardment; guns or missiles both
-Base for air power


Engaging enemy naval forces is just a means to prevent the enemy from doing those things.

[OneShot]

The mentioning of economics sparked some ideas based on RL.

Now we all know that Germany and a number of other nations take part in Operation Enduring Freedom at the Horn of Africa. Their main goal is to catch Tangos and Weapon/Support transports, but along the way they try to get the pirating down. Believe it or not, there are some areas in the world where Pirating is still or again a serious threat to commercial/private shipping. And you could make a number of missions out of this.

For starters :
- Your ROE don't allow you to shoot until shot at, and to not board a vessel until the owner/captain has given his OK. Now how do you prevent a Pirate from bringing up a merchant or freighter without shooting at him first?
- Pirate search, you know there is a bad apple among all the good ones, in a busy shipping lane. You are out to find him and board him.
- Find and track a Pirate back to its homebase without counterdetection

Those are three ideas for missions and you could reasonably play them for example at the Horn of Africa or in the Philipines. Toss in some Search and Rescue, escorting or the like and you can do a mini-campaign.

Depending on your AO you could expand this mini-campaign into a big one, given that some things just happend in the area and the situation escalates (where the ideas from above would come in). That 2nd part could either be part of the campaign or stand-alone but connected.

And to expand on my idea from one of the first posts ...

use the following books as basis

- Debt of Honor
- Executive Orders
- The Bear and the Dragon

all written by Tom Clancy. Those three books have one common thread and thats Chinas interest in expanding to their west (ie Sibiria). Tho thats only real visible in TBTD. To further their goal they make up a coalition with India, Japan and Iran. In the first book its Japan vs. US with India & China on the sidelines passively supporting Japans actions with some of their own. In the 2nd book its UIR (Iran/Iraq after Hussein was assasinated and Iraq assimilated by Iran into the UIR) vs US again with India and China on the sidelines. Tho this time Japan helps the US. And in the 3rd book its US & Russia vs China in the attempt to prevent China from taking Sibiria and the natural resources recently found there (huge amounts of gold, oil and other things).

There are some interesting mission in that, for example a SSN (or was it SSBN) playing Gasstation for some Army Comanches on a Special Ops mission.

[XabbaRus]

Try Larry Bond's Cauldron. Very interesting and a plausible scenario between Europe vs US + Britain + Poland.

Basically the EU has become a military industrial complex with weapons manufactured in eastern europe but the EU is controlled mainly by France and Germany, mainly France. Poland doesn't want to play ball and is fed up with France's bullying. Hungary isn't too happy either but can do diddly squat. Russia is on the sidelines working out what is best for her.

So French led euro forces invade Poland, UK + US help out...Russia makes secret deal with France's dictatorship leader. Germans aren't too happy about being in the war and jump side and US + UK win, Russia agrees to stay out. French dictator dude gets killed europe saved from itself we all live happily ever after.

[XabbaRus]

Try Larry Bond's Cauldron. Very interesting and a plausible scenario between Europe vs US + Britain + Poland.

Basically the EU has become a military industrial complex with weapons manufactured in eastern europe but the EU is controlled mainly by France and Germany, mainly France. Poland doesn't want to play ball and is fed up with France's bullying. Hungary isn't too happy either but can do diddly squat. Russia is on the sidelines working out what is best for her.

So French led euro forces invade Poland, UK + US help out...Russia makes secret deal with France's dictatorship leader. Germans aren't too happy about being in the war and jump side and US + UK win, Russia agrees to stay out. French dictator dude gets killed europe saved from itself we all live happily ever after.

[XabbaRus]

Try Larry Bond's Cauldron. Very interesting and a plausible scenario between Europe vs US + Britain + Poland.

Basically the EU has become a military industrial complex with weapons manufactured in eastern europe but the EU is controlled mainly by France and Germany, mainly France. Poland doesn't want to play ball and is fed up with France's bullying. Hungary isn't too happy either but can do diddly squat. Russia is on the sidelines working out what is best for her.

So French led euro forces invade Poland, UK + US help out...Russia makes secret deal with France's dictatorship leader. Germans aren't too happy about being in the war and jump side and US + UK win, Russia agrees to stay out. French dictator dude gets killed europe saved from itself we all live happily ever after.

[Oberon]

Cauldron is a good read and with the way the things are between the EU and the UK, not as fictional as you'd think.

Also, and here's a real noodle-bender...
Russia allying with the Middle East, trading weapons designs and technologies for money and oil which they can then use to rebuild their military? :o

[MaHuJa]

Russia ... trading ... for ... oil

I thought they had oil. Or at least gas, which they are exporting a lot of.

[Kazuaki Shimazaki II]

Most of which aren't in DW :dead:
(Though that may be about submarines)

I tried slapping a fast scenario about Diaoyutai two days ago. That's when I found out it was too small for Sonalysts to bother putting it on the map... :(

Cauldron is a good read and with the way the things are between the EU and the UK, not as fictional as you'd think.

A little too stereotyped though, methinks. French are arrogant and incompetant. Germans are good soldiers. And of course, nobody can be as good as the Americans...

[Deathblow]

- Debt of Honor
- Executive Orders
- The Bear and the Dragon


Its been awhile since I've read those books, and I've only half-read TBATD. I'll have to go back and look at the sub/ship scenes to remember what type of action there were. They probably would need to have a fair bit of naval engagement, not just tracking and posturing, to be a good campaign..... though a one or two mission recreation of the pivotal scenes of "The Hunt for Red October" might be interesting... :hmm:

[OneShot]

HfRO alone offers enough stuff for at least a good mini-campaign if not more.

[FERdeBOER]

I think the best way (or easier) to start a campaign is with a "small" conflict between two "minor" contries (not superpowers) that grows worst, many interests involved and finally the great powers enters the war on diferent sides.
Is hard to think on great powers engaging first.

The problem is again (sorry to insist), that there are too many countries avaiable tho choose, even only as computer controlled.

Another important factor is air supremacy. A hughe air power can compensate inferior navy, like China, but this limits the area of operations close to land areas (countries or islands)

I've though on conflicts like:

A very plausible conflict is just in Europe. Cyprus is a new member of EU, but part of the island is still under control of Turkey. On the other hand, Turkey (at least one part of) wants to enter in EU, but this will not be possible because Cyprus (maybe other countries) will void that untill the Turquish evacuates from their country.
Turkey is a very important U.S. allied due it's geographical position; on the past against Warsaw Pact, today with arab countries (Irak on fisrt place), so, in case of a Cyprus-Turkey conflict... wich side will choose every country? Will all EU members be on Cyprus side? What U.K. would do? Russia?
The final part of this campaign will have no problems with all the big countries involved, but the first... I will need countries as Turkey, Greece (not very friendly with Turkey historically), Spain (control of Gibraltar will be key), and so on...

Ucrania: what to say about this: Ucrania is turning to west countries (including proposal of being part of NATO), Russia still wants to control its old Soviet area. Ucrania controls part of Soviet naval, air and strategic missiles since USSR desintegration...
The problem: there is not Ucrania.


All of this can be partially reproduced because most of this countries have US, Russia or French material, but not all, and is not the same.

[Deathblow]

Russia ... trading ... for ... oil

I thought they had oil. Or at least gas, which they are exporting a lot of.

My impression is that they needed oil.... wasn't that their motivation when they invaded Iran for a short time... to acquire more oil to fuel their economy?

Try Larry Bond's Cauldron. Very interesting and a plausible scenario between Europe vs US + Britain + Poland.

:huh: Wow is the EU that volatile a political climate? I'm just asking because I'm not really familiar with the political intricacies of European politics. :hmm:

So it sounds like we have a lot of good ideas here. Should keep imaginations busy for a while at least.

*goes to comtemplate Middle East centered conflicts and possible naval involvement*